AI · resolved market
Will another model be the top AI model on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x454d5dfaa39a5795bbb4f15567c84b780b88c998d5a576d79f38866be4661e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $318,904
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,904 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes | 1c | 28,086$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.99 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 18,764$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.08 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbee…e8b5backed Yes | 4c | 9,013$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +254.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2911…98a7backed Yes | 1c | 7,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,689$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 1c | 6,502$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 1c | 5,956$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69da…f98cbacked Yes | 7c | 5,109$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -68%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4690…20f4backed Yes | 3c | 5,097$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 1c | 4,834$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98c…893cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,798$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 1c | 4,454$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…7935backed Yes | 1c | 3,925$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,878$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8837…f23abacked Yes | 4c | 3,104$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 3c | 3,036$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 2c | 2,822$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.48 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…f215backed Yes | 4c | 2,621$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.93 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb0…1c06backed Yes | 1c | 2,539$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 1c | 2,248$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,061$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24b5…cef1backed Yes | 1c | 2,015$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,882$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.23 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x690a…0813backed Yes | 1c | 1,761$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 1c | 1,744$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…8dd9backed Yes | 4c | 1,628$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed Yes | 3c | 1,624$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa718…0cf4backed Yes | 4c | 1,460$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…71d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,456$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 3c | 1,304$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,302$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 43cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb75…4f6abacked Yes | 4c | 1,246$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…2866backed Yes | 1c | 1,241$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…b1d6backed Yes | 2c | 1,130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 1,051$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,012$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…2323backed Yes | 3c | 961.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 3c | 925.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 3c | 858.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 854.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 2c | 779.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b7…486cbacked Yes | 3c | 774.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 2c | 771.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 4c | 669.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22bd…a216backed Yes | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5c…8283backed Yes | 3c | 643.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 5c | 609.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 4c | 600.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…be09backed Yes | 5c | 565.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff6…5e9dbacked Yes | 2c | 555.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3803…aecfbacked Yes | 3c | 484.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d4…d3aabacked Yes | 2c | 449.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…6065backed Yes | 5c | 443.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe588…7397backed Yes | 4c | 404.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…9066backed Yes | 3c | 372.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 360.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…540dbacked Yes | 4c | 341.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…cd1dbacked Yes | 3c | 319.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2545…0a4cbacked Yes | 5c | 268.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aab…c911backed Yes | 6c | 266.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…9592backed Yes | 5c | 241.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will another model be the top AI model on January 31?this page
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on January 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on January 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.