TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Google have the top AI model on January 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,509
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$358,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,509 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdbee…e8b5backed No5c29,665$1,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,558.67825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+254.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes72c9,942$7,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,826.05850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No4c9,899$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.266011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No32c7,748$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.2925731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked No3c7,611$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.7119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick3cpaid-33.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked No1c6,010$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.79166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-91.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed No7c4,107$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.3460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No2c4,017$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefb0…1c06backed No3c3,920$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes80c3,605$2,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.83560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes74c3,594$2,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$937.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-72.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked No26c3,487$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.723627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No3c2,700$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.432913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2320…f17ebacked No35c2,287$792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No1c2,245$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.85757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00a6…9343backed No39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7801533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3e…7007backed No2c1,820$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fbe…87debacked No11c1,820$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5ea…8caabacked No10c1,560$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes75c1,338$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.742250%11 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No41c1,224$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No24c1,150$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.843920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc7a…cc34backed No9c1,063$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.940%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff6…5e9dbacked No3c1,003$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed Yes60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbed…aa02backed No11c999.69$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-54.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6074…ebcdbacked No13c846.91$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-53.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d6…e727backed No1c799.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed No6c730.23$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.81150%0 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17d4…d3aabacked No6c718.58$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa801…01dbbacked No7c714.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9f9…a859backed No40c700$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc955…10f2backed Yes61c700$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc815…56b0backed No7c699.52$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.72850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes63c697.26$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb431…0c91backed No6c693.66$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.64425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x757f…93a4backed No9c670$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x346b…53dcbacked No5c663.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No10c655.73$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.57425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-50%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc803…4cefbacked No7c611.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed No25c499.98$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.991233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-31.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No10c405.75$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2828828.5%82 W · 206 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa718…0cf4backed No5c380$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd1b…496abacked Yes66c379.87$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes60c375.75$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.34100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+194.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No4c340.27$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x78d7…e21fbacked No6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf2…c371backed No6c317.46$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f7…039abacked Yes63c311$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No24c310.46$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.621040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-16%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No33c283.51$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.3772935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes74c258$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.081040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-34.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8bf…d806backed No36c253.57$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.661216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-67.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73e1…072cbacked Yes80c250.91$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-49.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb1…76d5backed No12c250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3832…35e1backed Yes60c248.63$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.631070%7 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick59cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes61c244.19$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1572…d2d8backed Yes77c235.35$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick58cpaid-12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a11…6df2backed No5c209.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ca7…49dcbacked No5c198.71$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes74c189.9$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.671533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88f4…f92cbacked No41c185.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-44%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e6b…13e4backed Yes60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd562…c28abacked No12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x19b8…7415backed Yes74c165.94$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe531…f0a4backed Yes61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked Yes61c163.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.931675%12 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed No39c158.24$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.712638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe89…a0babacked No40c157.59$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf40a…8114backed Yes60c157.26$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a2…25e7backed No13c153.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad0d…c483backed No23c151.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa52b…9480backed Yes66c150$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick75cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf259…7592backed No7c143.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabdc…49ffbacked Yes75c134$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07d6…50f6backed Yes60c125.55$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…85dbbacked Yes68c116.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.72683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+77.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x803c…bbbebacked No41c113.87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d65…061ebacked No26c113.27$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No41c110.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.124850%24 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked No37c106$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.89915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b6…9477backed No42c102.14$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes62c100$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386659.1%39 W · 27 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x66cc…01adbacked Yes61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick27cpaid-20.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2efe…ea7ebacked No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed Yes60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-72.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8a3…dcd7backed No25c99.25$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1429…b8aabacked Yes62c93.05$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x10ef…60ebbacked No41c91.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16d1…061cbacked Yes60c90$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ff…8410backed Yes62c86.02$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No28c81.93$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.983920.5%8 W · 31 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b0…47eebacked No26c78.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb577…5ce9backed No41c78.05$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…440ebacked Yes76c77.94$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3947…29e3backed No14c77.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8379…a2f0backed No26c77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26e3…9a30backed Yes61c75.49$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e07…d230backed No40c72.25$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.