AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b0f6f3b168bfeeb8356a2e525d0566bd54118d79a44433485a1ddef9b32dee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $200,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 2c | 34,154$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.59 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 13c | 11,017$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.53 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 10,498$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.87 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…7007backed Yes | 4c | 7,750$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3896…ece6backed Yes | 1c | 7,140$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb38…7935backed Yes | 6c | 5,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…ebcdbacked Yes | 6c | 4,960$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.73 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 32c | 3,767$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,189.74 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 68c | 3,420$2,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +194.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,955$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,630$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 2c | 2,243$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74d…7476backed Yes | 2c | 2,242$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a4…c8a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,009$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 2c | 1,954$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3c…7371backed Yes | 8c | 1,707$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb0…1c06backed Yes | 2c | 1,544$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68b5…63b2backed Yes | 9c | 1,361$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x247d…7d27backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5202…6065backed Yes | 2c | 1,057$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 29c | 1,030$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…7a1bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 29c | 1,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c06…70acbacked Yes | 6c | 945.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 1c | 925.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…3636backed Yes | 12c | 891.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 11c | 882.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.71 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…f92cbacked Yes | 34c | 735.29$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9ebdbacked Yes | 8c | 734.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…7bc2backed Yes | 2c | 662.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…2acbbacked Yes | 4c | 647.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +138.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 68c | 645.01$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 624.87$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.05 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 2c | 614.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…11edbacked Yes | 9c | 571.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a5…dcccbacked Yes | 9c | 561.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…9ec9backed Yes | 9c | 554.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…6a16backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 483.53$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…d647backed Yes | 8c | 444.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…ab70backed Yes | 7c | 437.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…d1c0backed Yes | 3c | 365$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae73…6581backed Yes | 14c | 364.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3acb…2efcbacked Yes | 9c | 342.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279d…bc0ebacked Yes | 9c | 313.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 8c | 300$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a8…b2d2backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…c483backed Yes | 33c | 288.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0627…75b5backed Yes | 32c | 284.76$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x970d…71d6backed Yes | 7c | 273.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 13c | 232.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…0204backed Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bda…f32bbacked Yes | 12c | 229.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce6…dcb3backed Yes | 7c | 207.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0261…2b59backed Yes | 33c | 181.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1f…76c9backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 31cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 8c | 181.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…4bf1backed Yes | 9c | 159.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…1156backed No | 66c | 143.75$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a3…7838backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 30c | 138.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc225…94ebbacked Yes | 9c | 126.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…4775backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed8…224abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 67c | 120$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2182…e3d7backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe416…b0cabacked Yes | 14c | 110.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…953abacked Yes | 33c | 109$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…01adbacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2b…69a5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x970e…1f08backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…d197backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…42debacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe111…34b5backed Yes | 32c | 99.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…f388backed Yes | 17c | 97.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc400…ab94backed No | 68c | 86.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cad…5794backed Yes | 33c | 86.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ec…6b1bbacked Yes | 33c | 77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…d80bbacked Yes | 33c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…7d8fbacked Yes | 33c | 54.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514d…2510backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 22cpaid | -89%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3f…0ffbbacked Yes | 32c | 46.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8c…e4bcbacked Yes | 33c | 41.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3c…3deebacked Yes | 33c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e4…b34ebacked Yes | 33c | 38.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on January 31?this page
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on January 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on January 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on January 31?No won
- Will another model be the top AI model on January 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.