TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x57ee…7f26

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Space, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Space at 55 out of 100; worst Golf at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$965Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+47.8%+$461.42
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+34.5%+$61.51
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$237Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$237.29
Trump declassifies JFK files in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,369Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,368.82
Price of eggs goes up in Trump's first month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$50.39
Trump claims largest inauguration crowd ever?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$80
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+47.4%+$19.29
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$5,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$5,679.64
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$51.49
Will Trump declare a national emergency in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+50%+$252.25
Will Benjamin Netanyahu attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will Eric Adams attend presidential inauguration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+198.5%+$26.59
Will Mark Zuckerberg attend presidential inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$68.47
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$5,017Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$5,016.57
All 14 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2025, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2025, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+68.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Dec 15, 2024, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick24cpaid+205%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Space — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 12, 2024, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+455.6%+$164
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kendrick Lamar be named the Billboard Greatest artist of 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+316.7%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$80.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bryson complete the Hole in 1 Challenge by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$315.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.