Weather · resolved market
Will there be 2-4 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c853257e0ad1bde80565b649a6a3c677df97f3b5142c50b3b4446f3290333cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 59c | 1,997$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.92 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 39c | 1,823$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef4…f76dbacked Yes | 50c | 323.07$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 50c | 221.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.89 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b7…5010backed No | 68c | 110.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked Yes | 48c | 93.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c50…07d6backed Yes | 48c | 82.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 52c | 52.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 43c | 46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 61c | 34.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 52c | 28.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe0…dffdbacked No | 59c | 23.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 50c | 20.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 2-4 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?this page
- Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?No won
- Will there be 12 or more inches of snow in NYC in Jan?No won
- Will there be 4-6 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?No won
- Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?No won
- Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?No won
- Will there be less than 2 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.