World Politics · resolved market
Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa04853f6baa8814ab3a94f49046e84de70a2714646f33b9fc37cdec3137560de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $601,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $751,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 1c | 20,281$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.47 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 1c | 11,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x867c…5d65backed No | 7c | 7,526$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.45 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 15cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 8c | 7,466$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.07 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 2c | 7,040$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.93 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…c5abbacked No | 5c | 7,025$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.37 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2a…07bfbacked No | 27c | 6,172$1,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,685.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 1c | 5,999$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed No | 7c | 5,847$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.28 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 0c | 5,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc0…d0d9backed No | 2c | 5,469$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 5,240$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 3c | 4,076$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.92 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 3,768$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed No | 2c | 2,999$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -71%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71be…bee6backed No | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed No | 6c | 2,340$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed No | 9c | 1,997$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 1c | 1,906$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 4c | 1,824$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 3c | 1,600$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e6…50aebacked Yes | 17c | 1,410$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 16cpaid | +149.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 8c | 1,250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed No | 10c | 777.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed No | 4c | 712.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…47bebacked No | 8c | 600$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…7f26backed No | 9c | 559.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…96c0backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…8e58backed No | 14c | 450$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +143.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a0…5f55backed No | 9c | 440.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked No | 4c | 379.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 15c | 343.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e4…8f34backed No | 12c | 335.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 11c | 334.62$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 15c | 333.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed Yes | 17c | 302.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.88 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 15cpaid | +236.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 7c | 250.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…dab3backed No | 13c | 240$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed No | 11c | 228$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…b5dbbacked No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e7…5d3dbacked No | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc7…8c0abacked No | 15c | 205.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…63d8backed No | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 18c | 173.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 131 | 18.3%24 W · 107 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…6874backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 79c | 130.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…beecbacked Yes | 80c | 102.58$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 15c | 90.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 101 | 31.7%32 W · 69 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 79c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0f…1248backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia?this page
- Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia?No won
- Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia?No won
- Will Marija Selak Raspudić be the next President of Croatia?No won
- Will another person be the next President of Croatia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.