World Politics · resolved market
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf33f53a6d779899034051bbfdec0616ff9badc879417b9f8ae148aa4eac3bad6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $399,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $399,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 30,805$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 9c | 24,648$2,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,134.4 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 24,138$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 0c | 16,529$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 232 | 25%58 W · 174 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 1c | 13,932$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…73e8backed Yes | 0c | 13,175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85af…849abacked Yes | 5c | 9,612$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad63…21bcbacked Yes | 10c | 8,959$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 7,919$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c45…a108backed Yes | 8c | 5,973$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 3c | 5,530$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…96e7backed Yes | 10c | 5,090$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17a…1db3backed Yes | 7c | 4,916$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.18 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 4c | 4,842$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.39 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6943…7462backed Yes | 2c | 4,350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.5 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes | 5c | 4,264$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.15 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…ace9backed Yes | 7c | 4,039$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 3,532$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4c…dceebacked Yes | 0c | 3,384$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 1c | 3,276$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6e…2723backed Yes | 6c | 3,261$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 4c | 3,028$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.47 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3847…5c87backed Yes | 7c | 3,007$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe367…f235backed Yes | 5c | 2,800$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07e…7db6backed Yes | 6c | 2,545$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,433$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.92 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.6wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…4e3bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,375$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 8c | 2,044$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.02 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 8c | 2,040$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 5c | 1,749$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.83 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes | 2c | 1,658$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 54 | 0%0 W · 54 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7720…b3c9backed Yes | 6c | 1,586$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 11c | 1,568$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.71 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 4c | 1,565$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.03 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d5…a3d0backed Yes | 7c | 1,432$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x521b…db60backed Yes | 6c | 1,411$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb5…b365backed Yes | 8c | 1,291$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed Yes | 3c | 1,185$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc2…0b59backed Yes | 2c | 1,180$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…fa38backed Yes | 10c | 1,170$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed Yes | 4c | 1,089$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 2c | 1,075$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 2c | 1,054$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 2c | 1,034$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0735…005dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…a9d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…9f0ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…2bf6backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07e2…db15backed Yes | 2c | 999.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 10c | 968$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…7137backed Yes | 9c | 874.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe837…739fbacked Yes | 2c | 874.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…d147backed Yes | 12c | 839.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 1c | 811.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9c…23a3backed Yes | 2c | 723.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x142f…2560backed Yes | 6c | 686.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 13c | 577.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.27 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…0a6abacked Yes | 18c | 561.11$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd174…313fbacked Yes | 7c | 549.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…a211backed Yes | 7c | 496.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 379.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedc…9adbbacked Yes | 10c | 350$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0877…0eecbacked Yes | 12c | 310$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18b7…d868backed Yes | 4c | 300.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes | 7c | 298.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…01e4backed Yes | 9c | 296$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed Yes | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 5c | 239$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 7c | 236.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7065…c100backed Yes | 7c | 190.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…6874backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f78…6987backed Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3af…bbd7backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 15c | 108.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfa…a0c1backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia?this page
- Will Ivana Kekin be the next President of Croatia?No won
- Will Marija Selak Raspudić be the next President of Croatia?No won
- Will Zoran Milanović be the next President of Croatia?Yes won
- Will another person be the next President of Croatia?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.