TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x88c1…a7cb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
272
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 58 out of 100; worst Movies at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2025, EDT6962.3%43 W · 26 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$6.32
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+72.4%+$12.31
Knicks vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+66.7%+$13.33
Wizards vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+28.2%+$6.49
Celtics vs. Rocketsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+37%+$7.4
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST+28.2%+$6.77
Hornets vs. Pistonsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Celtics vs. Timberwolvesbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+33.3%+$16.67
Bulls vs. Wizardsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
76ers vs. Trail Blazersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+26.6%+$5.32
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+58.7%+$11.75
Mavericks vs. Sunsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST+37%+$7.4
Bulls vs. Hawksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Heat vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$17.91
Hornets vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+26.6%+$10.63
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$12
76ers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST-100%-$13
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST+29.9%+$9.26
Clippers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Hawksbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Celtics vs. Magicbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Spurs vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+26.6%+$13.29
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST4571.1%32 W · 13 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick65cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 45 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maple Leafs vs. Islandersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Jets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+25%+$5
Devils vs. Ducksbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Avalanche vs. Sharksbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+38.9%+$22.94
Canucks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+64.3%+$27.66
Senators vs. Flamesbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+78.6%+$19.64
Bruins vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+57.4%+$14.35
Kraken vs. Blackhawksbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Penguins vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$69
Kings vs. Flyersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+33.9%+$23.76
Devils vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$51
Blues vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+47.1%+$24.04
Jets vs. Ducksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST-100%-$55
Panthers vs. Wildbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+65%+$29.9
Jets vs. Sharksbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+40.8%+$8.99
Senators vs. Krakenbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+78.6%+$13.36
Bruins vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$17.93
Capitals vs. Blackhawksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Rangers vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+72.5%+$12.32
Devils vs. Bluesbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+56.3%+$10.69
Islanders vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+42%+$8.81
Blue Jackets vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+40.8%+$8.58
Kings vs. Penguinsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST-100%-$71
Capitals vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+56.3%+$10.69
Showing 25 of 45 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST3545.7%16 W · 19 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+107.6%+$21.51
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$58
Will Andrej Babiš be the next Prime Minister of the Czech Republic after the elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+37%+$21.93
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will the Progressive Reform Party win the most seats in the 2025 Suriname election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$90
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$42.5
Will Crin Antonescu win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+203%+$40.61
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will the next Pope be from Asia?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.95
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Malcolm Ranjith be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$21
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+76.9%+$38.46
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+74%+$37
Will Crin Antonescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+110.7%+$22.14
Will Nicușor Dan advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Labour win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+25%+$15
Will Kim Moon-soo be the People's Power Party candidate for president?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$160
Will Daniel Noboa win the 2025 Ecuadorian Presidential Election? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$112Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2025, EDT+50.9%+$56.97
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2025, EST3479.4%27 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+16.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
NFL — the 34 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.58
Bears vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST-100%-$23
Giants vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+49.3%+$9.36
Lions vs. 49ersbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Chiefs vs. Steelersbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST+69.5%+$8.34
Cardinals vs. Panthersbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$30
Lions vs. Bearsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+31.6%+$18.95
Titans vs. Coltsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+53.8%+$10.77
Browns vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+25%+$20
Broncos vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+72.4%+$10.86
Falcons vs. Raidersbacked Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2024, EST+26.1%+$13.85
Packers vs. Seahawksbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2024, EST+75.4%+$8.3
Bills vs. Lionsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Colts vs. Broncosbacked Broncos · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+49.3%+$6.9
Steelers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+40.8%+$5.72
Patriots vs. Cardinalsbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+37%+$5.55
Buccaneers vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$12
Cowboys vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$13
Commanders vs. Saintsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+28.2%+$4.51
Chiefs vs. Brownsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+45.8%+$16.02
Dolphins vs. Texansbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+69.5%+$8.34
Bengals vs. Titansbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+42.9%+$6
Jets vs. Jaguarsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+61.3%+$7.97
Bengals vs. Cowboysbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST+44.9%+$8.99
Chargers vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+51.5%+$10.3
Showing 25 of 34 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2245.5%10 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump visit Mexico in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$23
Will Donald Trump visit South Korea in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$25.5
Supreme Court unblocks Alien Enemies Act?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump use a recess appointment for Matt Gaetz?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST+42.7%+$39
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11.2
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.2
Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+103.3%+$124.02
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Mike Johnson be the first elected Speaker of the House for the 119th congress?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+107.7%+$21.54
Will there be a US Government shutdown? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2024, EST-100%-$25
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Illegal" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "Border" in his speech after the election is called?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2024, EST+56.5%+$11.3
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+53.8%+$16.15
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+28.2%+$11.28
All 22 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2024, EST1266.7%8 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oklahoma vs. Navybacked Oklahoma · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Arkansas State vs. Bowling Greenbacked Bowling Green · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST-100%-$20
Rutgers vs. Kansas Statebacked Kansas State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+40.8%+$12.25
Pittsburgh vs. Toledobacked Pittsburgh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST-100%-$20
SMU vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+31.6%+$25.26
Tulane vs. Floridabacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+26.6%+$13.29
Ohio vs. Jacksonville Statebacked Ohio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+31.6%+$15.79
California vs. UNLVbacked UNLV · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+63.9%+$11.51
Western Kentucky vs. James Madisonbacked James Madison · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+31.6%+$12.32
Memphis vs. West Virginiabacked Memphis · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+49.3%+$9.85
South Alabama vs. Western Michiganbacked South Alabama · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST+33.3%+$5
Navy vs. Armybacked Army · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$28
All 12 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 3, 2026, EDT1020%2 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-42.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kingsbacked Punjab Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Mumbai Indians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.55
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Royal Challengers Bengalurubacked Royal Challengers Bengaluru · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.7
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+265.7%+$43.8
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.24
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+108.4%+$20.81
T20 World Cup: Italy vs Nepal (Game 1)backed Nepal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$20
ICC WWC: India vs. Sri Lankabacked Sri Lanka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will India win the 2025 Asia Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
Asia Cup: Bangladesh vs Indiabacked Bangladesh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 26, 2024, EST1070%7 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2024, EST+31.6%+$6.32
Will Fulham vs. Southampton end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST-100%-$40
Will West Ham vs. Brighton end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$60
Will Brentford vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+35.1%+$14.05
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+38.9%+$5.83
Will Ipswich win on 2024-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST-100%-$15
Will Newcastle win on 2024-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+31.6%+$4.74
Will Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+33.3%+$10
Will Brentford vs. Newcastle end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST+33.7%+$6.73
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST7100%7 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
F1 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick67cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Chess — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok removed from App Store by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST+40.8%+$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.