Space · resolved market
Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $262,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $326,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked No | 5c | 18,908$928 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 27c | 12,292$3,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,001.13 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 79c | 3,674$2,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 7c | 3,520$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.27 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked No | 5c | 3,029$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 67c | 2,899$1,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$964.99 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 76c | 2,774$2,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,310$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.94 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 22c | 2,175$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,693.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 1,915$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.42 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf97…663fbacked No | 73c | 1,737$1,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,268.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7a…65a6backed Yes | 43c | 1,508$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 6c | 1,427$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…bf04backed No | 48c | 1,258$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x545e…aee7backed No | 38c | 1,150$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 51c | 1,113$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd762…1e56backed Yes | 67c | 1,103$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…6c95backed No | 39c | 999.62$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a6…5ceebacked No | 10c | 999.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 11c | 983.56$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +346.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…da07backed No | 4c | 937.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.26 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…e566backed No | 12c | 851.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 3c | 832$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 29c | 739.29$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.02 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 16c | 708.67$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 64c | 663.78$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…be8cbacked No | 12c | 616.25$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…f712backed Yes | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 4c | 599$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…f00abacked No | 34c | 594.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 59c | 571.85$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef11…12c7backed Yes | 62c | 550$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…b8b7backed No | 51c | 540$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…7f1cbacked Yes | 68c | 500$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…294fbacked No | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 59c | 469.37$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa149…0e92backed No | 67c | 450$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…0b70backed Yes | 60c | 420$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed No | 75c | 400.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…a6c1backed Yes | 25c | 327.46$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 7c | 295.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 76c | 274.84$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 44c | 268.63$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd9…d3a6backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58bb…1bd7backed Yes | 64c | 256.55$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8d…e66fbacked Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 11c | 220$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 44c | 216.95$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…d4efbacked Yes | 47c | 213.38$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…052fbacked Yes | 72c | 207.23$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 70c | 205$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c557backed Yes | 46c | 198.88$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 37c | 185.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…190ebacked No | 12c | 177.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…0590backed Yes | 43c | 175$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…dbd9backed Yes | 77c | 173.31$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a6…66a9backed Yes | 50c | 169.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 38c | 142$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 29c | 133.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8a…61c0backed No | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…5701backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 44c | 125$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 21c | 121$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8eb…5027backed Yes | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…c4a2backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7120…201bbacked No | 28c | 108.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 21c | 104.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +381%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…c64cbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e48…0e01backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…ebc2backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…f1c6backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8121…37eebacked No | 47c | 88.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5b…c255backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 72c | 81.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f7…0d6fbacked No | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…39e2backed Yes | 70c | 78.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes | 66c | 75.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…3b2ebacked Yes | 73c | 71.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…0f8ebacked Yes | 50c | 68.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde24…75fabacked Yes | 67c | 67.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 54c | 66.4$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…f28fbacked Yes | 47c | 63.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…20a7backed Yes | 66c | 61.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed No | 21c | 60.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec17…8248backed Yes | 51c | 59.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf07b…4e0abacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f9…0021backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce85…5c94backed Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9011…03a9backed Yes | 49c | 46.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd316…3456backed Yes | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…c36dbacked Yes | 75c | 44.75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51c4…eebbbacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…b76abacked Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 36c | 44.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…e937backed Yes | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed Yes | 56c | 34.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +232.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?this page
- Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will one SpaceX Starship launch successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.