Space · resolved market
Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd919e15574e7757ad705cf69ad4639aa3dee3cd7c4000fce7e8d42a76361eef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 7,087$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.71 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 22c | 6,678$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes | 5c | 3,157$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x779e…bcdabacked Yes | 5c | 2,229$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…4a71backed Yes | 8c | 1,655$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,585$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…7f1cbacked No | 78c | 1,563$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…3fb9backed Yes | 7c | 1,461$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28af…019fbacked Yes | 56c | 1,408$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 44c | 1,166$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…c557backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,008$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +168%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 23c | 868.89$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…a800backed Yes | 6c | 795.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 21c | 663.78$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…30efbacked Yes | 16c | 639.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…bf04backed Yes | 69c | 576.88$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 32c | 563.52$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0384…d4efbacked Yes | 13c | 558.46$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…52b6backed Yes | 8c | 550$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 17c | 513.95$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…3d1bbacked Yes | 52c | 481.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 45c | 450$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee8…086bbacked Yes | 40c | 411.47$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95a3…046ebacked No | 18c | 390.81$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +176.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…d4e8backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 13c | 299.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…294fbacked No | 77c | 299.33$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ded…5d66backed Yes | 75c | 266$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 5c | 260.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 247.36$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.38 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c1…a7cbbacked Yes | 24c | 247.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…a6c1backed No | 49c | 223.89$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 14c | 205$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3765…c121backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…9694backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 196.32$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…c64cbacked Yes | 78c | 193.32$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 17c | 190.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a1…bdd4backed Yes | 7c | 184$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 73c | 182.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea04…b8c2backed Yes | 12c | 180.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeeca…052fbacked Yes | 14c | 169.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…e0e3backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 59c | 157.8$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.4 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 46c | 130$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 18c | 125$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…7e17backed Yes | 60c | 121$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb6…e94ebacked Yes | 17c | 119.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…b7c4backed No | 60c | 108.33$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca5…5881backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…ebc2backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad86…cd10backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…5701backed No | 76c | 65.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a3…20a7backed Yes | 31c | 65.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b643backed Yes | 63c | 62.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…810abacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4e…ff3dbacked Yes | 57c | 53.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ea…a907backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…4e8dbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc724…5dd4backed No | 23c | 48.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +342.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…0590backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c9…5769backed Yes | 78c | 34.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae8…397abacked Yes | 58c | 26.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 76c | 25.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…14c7backed Yes | 71c | 15.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3357…66d8backed Yes | 71c | 15.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?this page
- Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?Yes won
- Will one SpaceX Starship launch successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.