Space · resolved market
Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefc3ed55ea013e7f75ad53fa9670d704dba5428417d38a37232092f60ace44fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $286,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd762…1e56backed Yes | 7c | 22,528$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 20,990$1,859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,858.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec9…e566backed Yes | 8c | 17,961$1,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,484.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…fe1bbacked Yes | 9c | 13,842$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…b54dbacked Yes | 16c | 9,405$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 6,308$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.97 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…be8cbacked Yes | 6c | 6,200$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 5c | 5,656$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.28 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed Yes | 3c | 4,212$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9876…38e6backed Yes | 7c | 3,943$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +346.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…4427backed Yes | 36c | 3,742$1,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,361.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…5139backed Yes | 6c | 3,468$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 12c | 3,311$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 34c | 3,118$1,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,070.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,965$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd60…a6c1backed Yes | 3c | 2,683$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf942…b8a4backed Yes | 2c | 2,680$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 47c | 2,299$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 3c | 2,132$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed Yes | 10c | 1,841$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb29…625bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,735$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x979e…3d11backed Yes | 2c | 1,701$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a7…3fb9backed Yes | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…bbfbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,657$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,596$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked Yes | 2c | 1,580$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…52fcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,372$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa149…0e92backed No | 65c | 1,272$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb414…da07backed Yes | 5c | 1,252$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 1,218$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 64c | 1,150$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 26c | 1,148$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb810…b043backed Yes | 11c | 1,121$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 5c | 1,093$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,051$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9e…3a54backed Yes | 12c | 999.98$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381c…0ae3backed Yes | 11c | 952.65$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 937.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…7110backed Yes | 6c | 897.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…080fbacked Yes | 69c | 799.03$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 3c | 724.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc259…30efbacked Yes | 14c | 703.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…a800backed Yes | 7c | 675.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa386…a3aebacked Yes | 3c | 675.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…e434backed Yes | 9c | 675.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +114%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 11c | 663.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…ffc8backed Yes | 2c | 652.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…0626backed No | 30c | 607.37$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +230.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd9…f138backed Yes | 38c | 594.69$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89df…600bbacked Yes | 6c | 588.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…7f1cbacked Yes | 12c | 576.08$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20eb…9694backed Yes | 45c | 560.85$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648a…94cbbacked Yes | 9c | 556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40f0…5701backed Yes | 14c | 540.54$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 7c | 540$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 4c | 537.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9099backed Yes | 35c | 532.65$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfce9…8a7cbacked Yes | 19c | 530.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1b…3b29backed Yes | 6c | 461.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ae…619cbacked Yes | 6c | 450.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x971b…ec79backed Yes | 3c | 444.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8b…0159backed Yes | 23c | 411.96$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Yes | 33c | 400$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.25per pick | 40cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4b…0590backed Yes | 25c | 350$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…cd51backed Yes | 13c | 346.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc395…5c8cbacked Yes | 11c | 345.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2026…60c6backed Yes | 6c | 327.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…b13ebacked Yes | 5c | 318.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 18c | 311.6$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…4e8dbacked Yes | 35c | 305.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a3…b340backed Yes | 3c | 305$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 11c | 294.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +208.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…1875backed Yes | 7c | 284.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed Yes | 5c | 271.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +153.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d3…91dabacked Yes | 10c | 268.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 9c | 262.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb39…5012backed Yes | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x464c…bdbabacked Yes | 10c | 243.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…76febacked Yes | 15c | 221.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 73c | 210$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…ad04backed No | 66c | 209.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 9c | 208.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb6…b0b6backed No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…fa7bbacked Yes | 6c | 183.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb6…e94ebacked Yes | 11c | 175.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8121…37eebacked No | 31c | 174.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01f7…02dfbacked No | 44c | 165.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.94 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +119.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…40bfbacked Yes | 6c | 158.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe0…f2a8backed Yes | 54c | 153.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 10c | 141.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…6bdcbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa0…32c5backed Yes | 37c | 133.7$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f9…9d8ebacked Yes | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908d…b6aebacked Yes | 9c | 119.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc9d…c36dbacked Yes | 13c | 118.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc3…c64cbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?this page
- Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?Yes won
- Will one SpaceX Starship launch successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.