Space · resolved market
Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ba020facbdb28e70792e5de86005dd98d47f29824ca602c4027b00e0e9a7e5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Spaceevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Space is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Space | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b9e…3a54backed Yes | 4c | 9,759$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…27eabacked Yes | 5c | 3,783$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 9c | 2,903$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c89…9fa4backed Yes | 18c | 2,100$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…e17ebacked Yes | 10c | 1,383$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…52b6backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 14c | 844.29$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 700.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fc…98cfbacked Yes | 16c | 581.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked Yes | 6c | 537.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +168%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…d5aabacked Yes | 19c | 391.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 9c | 300.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb77b…e145backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c03…998dbacked Yes | 10c | 259.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 8c | 205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b643backed Yes | 43c | 117.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 17c | 109.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 72c | 68.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Space and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will two SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?this page
- Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?Yes won
- Will one SpaceX Starship launch successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
- Will three SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.