Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b557568875943ed7a44db38386adfaba39c3a2eb3384a276e112373835cc0b5

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $386,284
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $370,026

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $386,284 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 591 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked No	69c	55,004$37,944 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17,059.96	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No	69c	23,172$15,942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,229.8	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c17…18e4backed Yes	26c	22,801$5,842 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,841.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf5c…bf77backed No	77c	13,770$10,568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,202.26	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No	76c	12,777$9,653 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,123.63	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No	69c	12,714$8,827 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,886.63	23	65.2%15 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No	68c	12,262$8,379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,883.64	156	46.8%73 W · 83 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes	32c	11,988$3,894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,893.72	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes	34c	11,554$3,940 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,939.7	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c63…e291backed Yes	32c	10,870$3,452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,451.76	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No	68c	10,400$7,123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,276.61	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No	68c	10,218$6,951 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,267.73	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+4.8wins	+0.12per pick	41cpaid	+124.5%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed No	66c	9,500$6,285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,214.96	31	32.3%10 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Yes	32c	9,260$2,963 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,963.24	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	-4.3wins	-0.19per pick	56cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	70c	8,479$5,924 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,555.59	231	49.4%114 W · 117 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No	71c	8,450$5,961 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,488.96	81	34.6%28 W · 53 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No	72c	8,270$5,927 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,343.42	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	62cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No	70c	7,997$5,595 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,402.38	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes	35c	7,786$2,691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,691.16	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes	2c	7,032$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.55	219	35.2%77 W · 142 L	+8.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9be3…c64fbacked Yes	28c	6,601$1,843 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,843.09	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	5c	6,478$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.52	385	9.4%36 W · 349 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No	72c	6,319$4,570 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,749.68	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No	67c	6,010$4,006 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,003.96	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1529…649abacked Yes	26c	6,006$1,539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,538.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f0…be32backed Yes	33c	5,000$1,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,650	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.16per pick	49cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5e4…cd38backed Yes	33c	5,000$1,650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,650	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No	73c	4,759$3,455 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,304.65	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	27c	4,550$1,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,240.35	375	33.3%125 W · 250 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…b753backed Yes	29c	4,521$1,294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,293.99	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x788f…3f0ebacked Yes	30c	4,500$1,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,330	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c71…5176backed Yes	31c	4,069$1,250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,250	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f11…b63fbacked No	78c	3,990$3,103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$886.09	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+2.6wins	+0.20per pick	50cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x93df…44c7backed Yes	30c	3,797$1,139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,139.04	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb5…6c4cbacked Yes	27c	3,717$988 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$987.52	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23e5…7e24backed Yes	30c	3,665$1,099 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,099.42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa293…2919backed Yes	31c	3,664$1,133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,133.13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f49…69cfbacked Yes	30c	3,658$1,097 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,097.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd0…7e1fbacked Yes	28c	3,570$999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x418f…b7b6backed Yes	29c	3,498$1,024 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,023.7	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No	66c	3,434$2,267 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,167.41	141	35.5%50 W · 91 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42f1…411fbacked Yes	30c	3,432$1,030 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.73	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e77…fd49backed Yes	35c	3,362$1,168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,168.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes	33c	3,325$1,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,093.51	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a5c…ff52backed Yes	31c	3,226$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No	72c	2,812$2,039 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$773.69	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+5.9wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	28c	2,762$775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$775.47	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7480…65a2backed Yes	30c	2,598$787 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$786.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes	7c	2,544$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.91	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a3…d8aebacked Yes	33c	2,340$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$781.2	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6147…f8dcbacked Yes	1c	2,176$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee1…a195backed Yes	28c	2,145$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No	71c	2,056$1,465 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$591.59	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No	76c	2,000$1,516 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.14	85	47.1%40 W · 45 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes	29c	2,000$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$580	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x578c…9661backed No	78c	1,924$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.08	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14b7…7843backed Yes	26c	1,921$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	29cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d96…3a30backed Yes	34c	1,885$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30cf…16e7backed Yes	33c	1,881$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.29	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7015…9d47backed Yes	33c	1,807$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No	67c	1,800$1,203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$596.99	169	43.2%73 W · 96 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9acf…6f8bbacked Yes	34c	1,703$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.14	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes	29c	1,690$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$497.7	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	31cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0af…8753backed Yes	29c	1,683$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b0…533bbacked Yes	30c	1,669$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes	30c	1,667$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	25cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes	31c	1,635$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54d9…b05dbacked Yes	28c	1,635$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6f…864cbacked Yes	32c	1,565$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…e880backed Yes	32c	1,563$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	42cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No	70c	1,543$1,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$462.46	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…6318backed No	70c	1,500$1,047 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$452.82	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	63cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7860…4694backed Yes	33c	1,491$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.09	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+371.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes	26c	1,475$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.89	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed Yes	34c	1,471$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3d7…fab0backed Yes	34c	1,466$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	9c	1,454$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.7	377	40.6%153 W · 224 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…c1f6backed Yes	14c	1,450$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed Yes	27c	1,345$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.94	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-67.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No	71c	1,338$954 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$384.52	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50da…0b82backed Yes	30c	1,314$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.12	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xafdf…325dbacked Yes	24c	1,298$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.86	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No	74c	1,250$925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325	151	55%83 W · 68 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No	68c	1,250$850 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes	16c	1,249$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	76	38.2%29 W · 47 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-29%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b08…09febacked Yes	30c	1,231$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.43	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	22c	1,207$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.62	180	33.3%60 W · 120 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked No	73c	1,112$812 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300.24	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-2.5wins	-0.08per pick	34cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf507…525bbacked No	69c	1,107$767 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.96	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b4d…1a55backed Yes	30c	1,085$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.46	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	32cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1eca…63a9backed Yes	20c	1,069$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.89	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc59…fce1backed Yes	30c	1,005$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.5wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed No	72c	1,004$726 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.9	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes	28c	1,001$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.54	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes	32c	1,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes	33c	1,000$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	-2.8wins	-0.09per pick	33cpaid	-34.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed No	70c	1,000$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$299.6	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	26c	1,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa1…12e5backed Yes	35c	1,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No	68c	1,000$680 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$320	100	55%55 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event