Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60bab86f1e9169544fcf94d2a98ebc7dd3f74cb1ec2a6bbdfb1cca301cdd58e6

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $81,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,020

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,922 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked No	58c	17,628$10,249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,379.4	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No	58c	9,400$5,428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,971.95	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+3.9wins	+0.21per pick	48cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed Yes	37c	4,932$1,825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,824.84	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7472…4febbacked Yes	35c	3,111$1,098 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,097.89	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.19per pick	59cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e6…30a2backed Yes	43c	2,400$1,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,032	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-4.5wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	40c	2,370$948 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$947.83	231	49.4%114 W · 117 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1085…2d69backed No	64c	2,226$1,424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$801.76	56	44.6%25 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x75bb…0ac5backed Yes	46c	2,177$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000.17	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No	58c	1,935$1,115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$820.14	87	50.6%44 W · 43 L	+10.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes	41c	1,657$677 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.02	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked Yes	43c	1,400$602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$602	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No	48c	1,345$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$698.74	79	31.6%25 W · 54 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	15c	1,270$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.76	385	9.4%36 W · 349 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No	57c	1,247$706 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.82	100	55%55 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf03…9e58backed Yes	43c	1,171$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	37c	1,159$429 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$428.99	375	33.3%125 W · 250 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No	70c	1,136$800 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.27	20	55%11 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb844…a08ebacked Yes	53c	1,126$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No	58c	1,072$623 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.9	219	35.2%77 W · 142 L	+8.8wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes	41c	1,030$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.94	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-2.9wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-82.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c62…9b49backed Yes	49c	1,020$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb71a…6fc9backed No	57c	1,002$575 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$427.36	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed No	54c	1,000$540 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.24	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.22per pick	58cpaid	+29.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes	40c	1,000$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396	169	43.2%73 W · 96 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes	30c	1,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	20	20%4 W · 16 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa1f…90c0backed No	62c	1,000$620 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked Yes	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.8	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98f5…7226backed Yes	45c	1,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+2.1wins	+0.15per pick	21cpaid	+34.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked Yes	42c	1,000$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No	55c	946.33$523 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$423.12	119	40.3%48 W · 71 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5936…99c9backed Yes	19c	880.49$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.86	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a4a…3129backed Yes	4c	828.12$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.58	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7465…1a98backed Yes	54c	800$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.6	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	36cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes	29c	799.99$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.99	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes	47c	775.31$361 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.75	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7eda…4bb7backed Yes	46c	768.28$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	37cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f77…b4e3backed Yes	42c	719.05$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	50%5 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e51…a6cfbacked No	63c	700.58$441 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.6	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes	45c	692.44$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-3.9wins	-0.28per pick	42cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No	59c	655.9$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.18	963	19.8%191 W · 772 L	-32.4wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-50%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes	28c	600$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	320	29.1%93 W · 227 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1194…fae4backed Yes	53c	566.04$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99d1…f1f0backed Yes	45c	557.98$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.45per pick	45cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe677…2a7abacked Yes	45c	552.26$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1e22…d7e3backed Yes	38c	525.02$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.44	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+47.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes	42c	518.56$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42a3…b45fbacked Yes	39c	513.41$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes	17c	506.31$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x45ab…2c73backed Yes	3c	503.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85cf…4728backed Yes	46c	501.89$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	+63.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No	56c	499.98$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.99	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	62cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8979…bcd6backed No	59c	499.97$295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.99	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	39c	475.12$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.16	147	42.9%63 W · 84 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes	42c	470.58$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.2	174	52.9%92 W · 82 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No	49c	464.8$229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.75	25	44%11 W · 14 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes	43c	460$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.8	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-4.3wins	-0.21per pick	40cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x51a4…0e62backed Yes	44c	457.56$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab51…db25backed Yes	45c	450$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.4	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe191…bac4backed Yes	34c	442.96$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	33cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddb8…7690backed Yes	47c	427.82$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No	59c	424.95$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.04	86	46.5%40 W · 46 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No	58c	410$238 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.53	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2139…4b34backed No	56c	405.19$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.37	86	32.6%28 W · 58 L	+6.2wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No	58c	404.48$235 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.88	148	43.2%64 W · 84 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65bc…1a5cbacked Yes	45c	402.14$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.7wins	-0.45per pick	61cpaid	-79%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes	27c	389.2$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.7	283	20.5%58 W · 225 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No	55c	384.99$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.7	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	48c	382.94$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.08	180	33.3%60 W · 120 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No	66c	369.98$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.79	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x62b1…ca22backed No	54c	366.4$196 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.31	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.29per pick	49cpaid	+71.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed No	58c	350$204 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$146	39	53.8%21 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeebf…065ebacked Yes	37c	348.97$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-78.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes	45c	333.33$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes	40c	331.03$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.16	170	21.2%36 W · 134 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed No	62c	320$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.6	13	84.6%11 W · 2 L	+4.2wins	+0.32per pick	53cpaid	+79.5%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xee67…88dfbacked Yes	43c	316.94$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.18	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	52cpaid	-36%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x717a…1b62backed Yes	15c	314.73$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.21	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a03…b538backed No	57c	314.19$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135.1	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42ef…8686backed Yes	38c	300$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8773…302fbacked Yes	34c	294.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc82…c7c5backed Yes	42c	285.71$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.22per pick	38cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No	59c	283.66$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$115.66	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdda3…8afebacked Yes	36c	281.07$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	34cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49e8…4f0bbacked Yes	37c	271.68$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	43cpaid	-41.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ea…a8dcbacked Yes	37c	270.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	57c	266$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.99	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed No	57c	262.94$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.06	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.19per pick	32cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3025…fccdbacked Yes	49c	258.86$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba0…a7c4backed No	62c	256.88$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.55	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	+3.4wins	+0.12per pick	50cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b7…671ebacked Yes	39c	253.1$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes	45c	250$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.5	24	25%6 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b81…fa19backed Yes	40c	248.94$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe132…2feabacked Yes	46c	241.96$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04ef…3040backed Yes	41c	241$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed No	57c	240$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.2	21	38.1%8 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc76c…7d8bbacked Yes	43c	235$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x194f…848ebacked Yes	44c	232.75$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.57	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-52%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No	56c	224.98$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.74	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed Yes	45c	223$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.35	41	56.1%23 W · 18 L	+7.0wins	+0.17per pick	39cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event