TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$866,745
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$937,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $866,745 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 327 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x778a…b405backed Yes14c70,142$10,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,116.6240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes13c38,153$4,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,949.9217850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c07…5214backed Yes15c36,132$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x571e…6870backed Yes15c32,425$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes12c18,789$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.772317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bbf…d834backed Yes20c15,132$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9bb…8827backed Yes12c12,286$1,428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,427.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e4…cd38backed Yes10c10,021$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes9c9,135$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.4621022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b2…426bbacked Yes10c9,045$932 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578c…9661backed Yes12c8,602$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef9…9c40backed Yes14c8,285$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,172.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd543…b262backed Yes8c6,574$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$546.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c71…5176backed Yes16c6,250$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes3c6,008$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.033859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…3b8bbacked Yes11c6,000$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6605928.8%17 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes4c5,944$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4311940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes10c5,684$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.1432029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4457…f3e2backed Yes13c5,200$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.7825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe9b…aabfbacked Yes13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes1c5,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes7c4,903$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.276021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b33…9663backed Yes11c4,715$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ee1…a195backed Yes13c4,615$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes7c4,368$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.9317021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14dd…13eebacked Yes6c4,316$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.71119.1%1 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+77.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes7c4,130$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.121935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccee…3eb7backed Yes14c3,996$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.12933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9867…5cc6backed Yes17c3,745$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.5740%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5450…5f08backed Yes17c3,500$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9156…5932backed Yes10c3,392$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.44825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01e1…7d52backed Yes12c3,332$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1985…90c9backed Yes21c3,305$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70060%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes12c3,300$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3822313%3 W · 20 L-4.4wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-76.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ae…d5b1backed Yes13c3,298$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d3…4c58backed Yes16c3,177$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes10c3,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3005740.4%23 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f8d…edbebacked Yes12c3,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3602548%12 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd6d…f860backed Yes10c2,761$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1ab…361bbacked Yes14c2,551$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.660%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x479e…23b3backed Yes8c2,482$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.29714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b85…4be3backed Yes8c2,455$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a5c…ff52backed Yes11c2,395$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes16c2,170$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.23030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4238…4cecbacked Yes12c2,150$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25540%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5c…3cbabacked Yes12c2,083$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.897038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes14c2,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0764…9754backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x822a…d870backed Yes9c1,969$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8160%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes11c1,891$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2081421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7304…0379backed Yes5c1,795$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.073953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9287…8556backed Yes12c1,608$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-79.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes21c1,550$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.617432.4%24 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b3…068cbacked Yes8c1,549$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x340f…3cf5backed Yes13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No45c1,532$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.6816535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes13c1,500$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19535519.7%70 W · 285 L-16.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-45.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b13…e848backed Yes7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb15…b905backed Yes17c1,480$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f66…4f72backed Yes10c1,447$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.7812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-8.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes7c1,428$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.967129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x673a…b460backed Yes16c1,300$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0af1…abc0backed Yes8c1,250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-55%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3153…85a9backed Yes13c1,228$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe119…6b06backed Yes13c1,176$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.88616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6cd2…dad6backed Yes9c1,139$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe61…4665backed Yes16c1,111$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.76714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-35.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x648e…d4fdbacked Yes10c1,050$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x923d…6d01backed Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-79.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9ec…23bfbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c05…850abacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes14c999.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1353441.2%14 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1eca…63a9backed Yes10c968.96$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.9570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b0c…f772backed Yes10c967.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick45cpaid-57.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes10c949.05$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes7c919.51$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.351822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-47.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8f25…6ce0backed Yes11c907.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes11c884.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55b2…e941backed Yes15c873.08$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55db…7ce1backed Yes10c850$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851435.7%5 W · 9 L+1.8wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d54…7200backed Yes16c845.73$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x320a…deb3backed Yes12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf15…4d05backed Yes12c810.44$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafcc…ae59backed Yes13c803$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.771442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd36…e7d5backed Yes13c790.56$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes15c782.18$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11617452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc6c…fcf4backed Yes12c769.58$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69da…f98cbacked Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08e7…440abacked Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1312…b0e5backed Yes13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Yes10c768.79$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.88616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aef…d34dbacked Yes13c767.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f4…3af8backed Yes11c765.61$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.3340%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5420…a717backed Yes10c755.96$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-64.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes7c714$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.98120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa34…66fbbacked Yes13c710.26$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$951520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7bb…7213backed Yes14c705.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-32%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.