Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x039b490964fb1224c7bccc8d62cad1e0a9dbd676973bf4f110b7fe8f9f2742e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 18c | 2,054$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.42 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked Yes | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.95 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 78c | 1,318$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.18 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc0…d2cebacked Yes | 12c | 966.18$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…e832backed Yes | 21c | 955.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked Yes | 17c | 798.68$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 80c | 699.99$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 21c | 636$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.45 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…ae37backed Yes | 21c | 584.56$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b96…e9e9backed Yes | 21c | 548.82$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 8c | 501.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.43 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 80c | 499.99$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.81 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…fd1dbacked Yes | 21c | 466.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 22c | 456.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 78c | 449.98$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 61c | 360.61$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…da9ebacked Yes | 16c | 351.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 18c | 345$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 15c | 338.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…bac4backed Yes | 20c | 299.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…d297backed Yes | 16c | 283.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed No | 78c | 254.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 17c | 223.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…46cabacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…d87bbacked Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c7…59dabacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed No | 79c | 180.44$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 176$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 78c | 172.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf6…ff0dbacked Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 22c | 150.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes | 22c | 150.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a8…e6fdbacked Yes | 21c | 145.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 18c | 139.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc10b…53f2backed Yes | 14c | 135.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb360…07f4backed Yes | 22c | 134.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…517cbacked Yes | 21c | 121.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 19c | 120.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.82 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…b488backed Yes | 26c | 115.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…d84cbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd5…f4f1backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 71c | 92.7$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19d9…5072backed Yes | 17c | 81.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…5cf4backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2664…5cfcbacked Yes | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccc…81ebbacked Yes | 19c | 51.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…74e6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7865backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681b…bfedbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.