TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$273,803
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$314,214

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $273,803 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 228 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes20c28,198$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,697.8715243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x42f9…38d5backed No0c21,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes17c11,117$1,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,277.6337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes15c6,230$908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,322.1611848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes15c5,559$845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,713.7821022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No77c5,494$4,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,232.5223149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x743b…3b7cbacked Yes20c5,091$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,091.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+409.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f62…02efbacked No75c4,129$3,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,112.691442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab1…d307backed Yes15c4,072$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,462.421216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No73c3,989$2,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,918.467041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes27c3,877$1,035 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.773030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes26c3,604$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,666.941154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes29c3,234$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.5516854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes20c3,095$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.8912531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes16c2,728$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,299.391435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes21c2,331$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,830.762317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb33…aaadbacked Yes18c2,101$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.951030%3 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb9…1a07backed Yes15c2,099$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,784.93475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+140.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes19c1,819$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,479.5717452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb206…f717backed Yes19c1,587$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.85633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes15c1,565$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.392352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x835d…62dcbacked Yes21c1,409$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.551136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes15c1,363$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,160.7232029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xded2…abc3backed No80c1,320$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.7650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb083…51bdbacked Yes16c1,245$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+211.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b08…09febacked Yes20c1,194$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.03520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9589…159bbacked Yes17c1,169$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.6616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-2.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf80…09f0backed Yes23c1,089$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.98728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No78c1,085$848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$847.8511950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ace…1a6cbacked Yes19c1,078$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$877.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+169.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes16c1,069$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$897.957931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked Yes19c1,049$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.15437%20 W · 34 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85cf…4728backed Yes15c1,016$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.27425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid+63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d55…5ea3backed Yes17c1,010$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.192020%4 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ec…0ff9backed Yes15c1,009$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$859862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+55.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1a8…0bfcbacked Yes24c1,001$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.911442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+65.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f02…a51cbacked Yes13c1,000$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$870540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+111%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed No79c999.98$790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$789.982240.9%9 W · 13 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-19.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x91b8…8e9fbacked Yes24c967.92$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.22366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+515.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No79c925.99$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.652544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes14c888.89$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.4516535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No77c876.33$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.715158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No79c800$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63216943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e16…84d7backed Yes16c783.53$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.291631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+39.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed No79c782.45$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.314040%16 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc0…d2cebacked Yes14c743.58$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.81520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+47.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes16c717.03$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.311421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes17c710.1$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.363423.5%8 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc647…2f83backed No71c696.26$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No78c670.42$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.9321935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b07…fc5ebacked Yes18c659.3$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+178.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x479e…23b3backed Yes16c612.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.34714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cc7…63e6backed Yes17c591.76$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+97.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes19c574.77$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.5918914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b6…360fbacked Yes14c570$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.71315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes15c557.66$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.1296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb80f…cbf7backed Yes18c555.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.56742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick17cpaid+103.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf654…9574backed Yes19c550.1$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.8714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd94d…365ebacked Yes18c549.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4427…498dbacked No77c536$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick60cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb674…1493backed Yes19c535.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+67.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bf4…dca9backed Yes19c534.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa86f…d59abacked Yes19c528$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.68425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+31.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0fe…bc74backed Yes21c523.66$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.93425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb15…b905backed Yes19c521.43$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.43520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc45…a699backed Yes19c515$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6a…9d99backed Yes16c505.15$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a3a…ee52backed Yes19c500$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4052437.5%9 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick22cpaid+68.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e22…d7e3backed Yes17c500$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56da…9294backed Yes20c494.1$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick10cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No80c493.01$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.1313556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd6e0…8412backed Yes19c454.17$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.672416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8fb…5bb6backed Yes22c444.8$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68e…4afdbacked Yes24c424.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.99728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfce…a9aebacked Yes18c421.04$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+91.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No80c405.62$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.517544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad95…8e7fbacked Yes26c384.62$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xacab…78e5backed No79c377.7$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-2.0wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3013…57edbacked Yes17c375.47$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.641656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick35cpaid+98%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes17c362.6$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.3730319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes19c352$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.041526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid+13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe746…3f6ebacked Yes17c351.44$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.32812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ecb…6005backed Yes23c342.64$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+42.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No72c339.99$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.3523543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6784…7c61backed Yes15c339.17$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dc9…0101backed Yes15c330.58$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.58728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c08…3afcbacked Yes16c312.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.5650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+65.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33ec…ae50backed Yes17c305.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+500.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ae…ccf7backed No69c300.32$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes34c297.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.693842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22cc…ef97backed Yes9c295.05$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.57129.6%21 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x65e3…b9b1backed Yes17c294.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+96.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5680…73febacked Yes17c294.12$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.12955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes15c291.99$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.3417021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes17c286.1$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.468142%34 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes22c285$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.32516%4 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes25c281.7$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.72536%9 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0da…13d0backed Yes18c277.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.78825%2 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No60c275$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.78331.3%26 W · 57 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+4.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No75c275$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.252045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.