Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b5cf784f1710ceaad2c713717fed28e114a6b4b9a54a6d934c22a73a4df261c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $245,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $236,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $245,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 186 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x778a…b405backed Yes | 16c | 51,448$8,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,426.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…5bf1backed Yes | 32c | 9,851$3,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,124.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 2c | 6,283$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked Yes | 19c | 5,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes | 18c | 4,033$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d9…b05dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,824$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee1…a195backed Yes | 16c | 3,762$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…d5b1backed Yes | 18c | 3,724$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,591$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.48 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x980e…5487backed Yes | 11c | 3,100$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,818$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.06 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…0b82backed Yes | 7c | 2,726$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.55 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…b753backed Yes | 10c | 2,660$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3150…538cbacked Yes | 19c | 2,430$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 15c | 2,086$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.23 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7465…1a98backed Yes | 12c | 2,061$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f62…02efbacked No | 74c | 1,845$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,659$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 88 | 23.9%21 W · 67 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…b905backed Yes | 16c | 1,607$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 19c | 1,558$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…6c4cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,478$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked Yes | 15c | 1,474$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 14c | 1,319$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.72 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +130.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Yes | 4c | 1,300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bb…5881backed Yes | 13c | 1,154$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,148$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Yes | 13c | 1,047$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…ef28backed Yes | 10c | 1,047$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9a…cb4dbacked Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 5c | 891$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 15c | 840.14$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 15c | 812.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.91 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 17c | 772.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…ebd0backed Yes | 14c | 739.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e8…b633backed Yes | 12c | 685.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c53…44f2backed Yes | 6c | 670$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…aea4backed Yes | 14c | 657.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4481…e934backed Yes | 20c | 653.3$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.66 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 15c | 646.63$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.36 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes | 10c | 625$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x822a…d870backed Yes | 12c | 558.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…d4fdbacked Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…0601backed No | 80c | 519.09$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 3c | 506.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe586…f883backed Yes | 20c | 505.36$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a45…cf97backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbf…d834backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a78…4d4ebacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…8bffbacked Yes | 18c | 466.72$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.01 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 11c | 457.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.19 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 453.63$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…0506backed Yes | 9c | 425$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…46cabacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 16c | 414.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed Yes | 25c | 401.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.2wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd481…48b3backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 16c | 394.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.08 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9a…1acdbacked Yes | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39e8…e34ebacked Yes | 18c | 379.89$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 14c | 370.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…d59abacked Yes | 16c | 365.11$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec9…87d7backed Yes | 14c | 362.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…39c4backed Yes | 14c | 360$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked Yes | 4c | 350$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…5b47backed No | 59c | 341.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.53 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 16c | 339.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f3…c927backed Yes | 15c | 322.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62c…13b9backed Yes | 16c | 320.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…ae59backed Yes | 23c | 320$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cd…0ebcbacked Yes | 18c | 315.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2817…1f7cbacked Yes | 12c | 302.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9706…13b9backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…19f1backed Yes | 17c | 296.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ef…2c77backed Yes | 10c | 276.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5949…d9a5backed Yes | 13c | 269.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 13c | 262.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…0bd7backed Yes | 19c | 256.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 40c | 253.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3070…74f4backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4364…302ebacked Yes | 13c | 248$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 20c | 246.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 20c | 242.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b2…e941backed Yes | 21c | 237.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 80c | 237.75$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 25c | 227.39$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…ace0backed Yes | 12c | 222.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1406…b512backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked No | 77c | 222$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 72 | 27.8%20 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 42c | 220$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.6 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d1…6317backed Yes | 19c | 218.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 19c | 214.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.