Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c9d62cb32989127ac5fa141c6ff89cbb576efb93ed1305260c69011c89e8d9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $206,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked No | 1c | 35,247$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.7 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…38d5backed No | 1c | 14,598$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 75c | 11,695$8,757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,938.62 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…151abacked No | 3c | 10,958$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.86 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 5c | 9,710$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.55 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 18c | 9,072$1,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,617.25 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd3…7214backed No | 5c | 6,770$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 24c | 6,199$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.87 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed No | 28c | 5,626$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.77 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 73c | 5,229$3,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,421.19 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 22c | 5,000$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.01 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 30c | 4,274$1,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,283.94 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ca5fbacked No | 2c | 4,026$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…776bbacked Yes | 77c | 3,894$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$894.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 26c | 3,852$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.71 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 21c | 3,279$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.89 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 1c | 3,213$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 2c | 3,123$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…05a0backed No | 2c | 3,050$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb330…f6eabacked No | 5c | 3,000$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x835d…62dcbacked No | 27c | 2,778$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 5c | 2,623$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…38cebacked No | 5c | 2,308$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed No | 5c | 2,291$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed No | 6c | 2,048$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cdb…4304backed No | 1c | 1,873$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed No | 5c | 1,850$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed Yes | 66c | 1,827$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed Yes | 71c | 1,748$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.09 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked No | 20c | 1,726$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…533bbacked No | 24c | 1,668$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…7bb3backed No | 21c | 1,650$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…dd03backed Yes | 71c | 1,418$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 75c | 1,340$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.15 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…e4f1backed No | 18c | 1,328$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x706f…605fbacked No | 7c | 1,313$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2083…962ebacked No | 8c | 1,181$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42dd…48b7backed No | 2c | 1,178$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc82…c7c5backed No | 4c | 1,119$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77cc…f51fbacked No | 4c | 1,075$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed No | 5c | 1,033$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fda…bd72backed No | 5c | 1,031$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0394…3ef9backed No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6713…951bbacked Yes | 75c | 982.8$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 3c | 980$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa359…4c74backed No | 7c | 922.56$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c2…e2d1backed No | 24c | 838.45$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked No | 20c | 829.06$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.19 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +98%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 22c | 799.98$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65dc…0b11backed No | 10c | 758.72$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked No | 6c | 737.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed No | 4c | 720$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 4c | 700.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…a1d1backed No | 6c | 697.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccc…e832backed Yes | 74c | 673.76$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984e…3ef7backed No | 5c | 673.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed No | 10c | 658.35$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…ce1dbacked Yes | 78c | 640.79$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…6485backed No | 16c | 624.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 24c | 613.67$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.63 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed No | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked No | 2c | 599.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf8…3632backed No | 2c | 594.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 77c | 585.66$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…55bebacked No | 20c | 566.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…4589backed Yes | 75c | 500.26$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…728ebacked No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 21c | 481.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7050…b4fabacked No | 3c | 429.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 75c | 425.04$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c51…f8febacked No | 3c | 401.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 24c | 400$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed No | 4c | 374.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x996c…1ee3backed Yes | 67c | 351$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…a272backed No | 6c | 345$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e9…9f36backed No | 24c | 339.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 65c | 307.46$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.46 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…3da7backed No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked No | 5c | 295.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a5…4366backed No | 22c | 294.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked No | 35c | 280$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 68c | 273.49$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.1 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 79c | 270$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.3 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 262.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.27 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa735…b423backed Yes | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed No | 26c | 249.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf565…8bffbacked No | 20c | 247.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 25c | 233.46$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x233f…051cbacked No | 12c | 230.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…599fbacked Yes | 78c | 228.09$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b26…107cbacked Yes | 78c | 226.29$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0125…3f1abacked No | 5c | 225.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 15c | 225$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 73c | 222.21$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.1 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…ae37backed No | 22c | 216.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…c28abacked No | 6c | 213.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 63c | 210.99$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d42…f046backed Yes | 64c | 201.71$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.98 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2774…07dfbacked Yes | 72c | 200.38$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.