TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$155,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$173,756

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd262…8553backed Yes34c14,712$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,711.94633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42f9…38d5backed No0c13,465$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.671729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No62c12,493$7,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,789.337354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No64c10,603$6,761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,760.727458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No66c9,940$6,601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,600.9337533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No59c8,308$4,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,905.6423149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No65c7,558$4,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,944.0513540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x018a…442abacked No67c5,081$3,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,406.04875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No68c5,000$3,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,419.9315646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No60c4,948$2,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,982.893953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3c5d…d382backed Yes42c4,752$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,751.68450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No72c4,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,879.992352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9461…6fcabacked Yes34c3,460$1,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,293.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+196.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a6…06afbacked Yes33c2,994$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+60.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x835d…62dcbacked Yes38c2,802$1,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.021136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No66c2,500$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,649.9911848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No69c2,409$1,654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.043542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes36c2,348$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.4321022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No67c2,079$1,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,395.048547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No60c1,905$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.878453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes34c1,837$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.342934.5%10 W · 19 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes32c1,575$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.453859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9156…5932backed Yes32c1,546$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.2825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153112.9%4 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+96.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89a7…e4c8backed Yes67c1,492$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No73c1,353$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.6721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No64c1,200$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.986354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No64c1,134$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$726.3196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3cd…3537backed Yes31c1,105$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.84450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+51.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd0f5…aea4backed Yes34c1,050$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…a1dbbacked No72c1,045$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7502055%11 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes40c1,000$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.672119%4 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-41.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe5e4…cd38backed Yes33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd591…ce1dbacked Yes72c971.78$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd452…03e0backed Yes34c882.35$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.35742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+18.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe62e…b7f5backed Yes28c832.14$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No66c811.7$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.4837844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No67c788.63$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.2714742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…6318backed No68c777.72$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.351172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No62c757.06$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.8710055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes31c733.26$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.0217452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes47c730$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.335326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed No69c684.13$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.591942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1194…fae4backed Yes41c668.91$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51a4…0e62backed Yes30c666.67$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.672138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…065ebacked Yes46c657.86$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.921010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa357…6485backed Yes48c626.25$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.651010%1 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-79.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes49c613.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.393030%9 W · 21 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-47.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes40c600$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3603129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed No57c592.6$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.433655.6%20 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+65.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes34c588.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.242317.4%4 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes20c575.63$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.57931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes32c570$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.8728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e22…d7e3backed Yes34c564.14$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.33633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked No59c560.75$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.242737%10 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3153…85a9backed Yes39c552.2$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes67c550.79$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.8116854.8%92 W · 76 L+22.8wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+56%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x3e35…71f4backed Yes33c535$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No59c515.99$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.0314135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8773…302fbacked Yes39c515.5$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-35.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No66c506$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.25442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No28c500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e49…0f4ebacked Yes35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No65c493.31$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.8399629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes36c485.69$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.6917021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed No65c457.14$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.148750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb206…f717backed Yes35c428.57$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.57633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed No60c385$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-34.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab08…8924backed No71c367.51$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6906…9cbdbacked No67c360$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.051338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes42c357.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked No70c357.13$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.9914843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x645e…d120backed No65c350$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No53c346.8$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.2113556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x95f6…d035backed Yes29c345$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.95714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f11…ce9fbacked Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.33425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…ae37backed Yes30c333.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.331118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes33c333.33$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.331414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-68.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb12a…8d19backed Yes34c323.06$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No66c320.08$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.576246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes31c317.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.51030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2804…05c7backed Yes44c314.26$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c312.04$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.461,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x30b9…9b83backed No71c311.48$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No62c308.95$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.992254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No56c303.92$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0514940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No67c300$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2015742.1%24 W · 33 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed Yes38c298.23$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes32c295.76$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.764122%9 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa319…02dabacked Yes34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.12812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick38cpaid-63.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes32c294.08$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.97837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1bf…1800backed No68c292.59$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.591266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+71.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4ff…10f4backed Yes34c291.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.51553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7737…e497backed Yes36c280.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.174240.5%17 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6994…7112backed Yes30c280$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1964156.1%23 W · 18 L+7.0wins+0.17per pick39cpaid+66.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd36…e7d5backed Yes36c277.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.571833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b2…f94bbacked Yes36c276.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.46933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes44c275.68$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.681233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes35c270.41$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.683023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfb7…a1d1backed Yes30c266.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.67425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.