Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0de23d64498ff9f0097c4d63bf022893a86e03c2997b42659a5e2435fb8be747
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $155,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $155,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 308 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 34c | 14,712$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,711.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…38d5backed No | 0c | 13,465$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 62c | 12,493$7,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,789.33 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 64c | 10,603$6,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,760.72 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 66c | 9,940$6,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,600.93 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 59c | 8,308$4,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,905.64 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 65c | 7,558$4,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,944.05 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…442abacked No | 67c | 5,081$3,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,406.04 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 68c | 5,000$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,419.93 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 60c | 4,948$2,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,982.89 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…d382backed Yes | 42c | 4,752$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,751.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed No | 72c | 4,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9461…6fcabacked Yes | 34c | 3,460$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +196.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…06afbacked Yes | 33c | 2,994$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,993.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x835d…62dcbacked Yes | 38c | 2,802$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.02 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 66c | 2,500$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.99 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 69c | 2,409$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.04 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 36c | 2,348$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,513.43 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 67c | 2,079$1,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.04 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 60c | 1,905$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.87 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 34c | 1,837$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.34 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 32c | 1,575$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.45 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9156…5932backed Yes | 32c | 1,546$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | +96.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e4c8backed Yes | 67c | 1,492$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 73c | 1,353$989 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$988.67 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 64c | 1,200$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.98 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 64c | 1,134$726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$726.31 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cd…3537backed Yes | 31c | 1,105$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f5…aea4backed Yes | 34c | 1,050$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 72c | 1,045$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 40c | 1,000$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.67 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.21per pick | 40cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e4…cd38backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd591…ce1dbacked Yes | 72c | 971.78$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd452…03e0backed Yes | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…b7f5backed Yes | 28c | 832.14$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 66c | 811.7$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.48 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 67c | 788.63$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.27 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed No | 68c | 777.72$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.35 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 62c | 757.06$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.87 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 31c | 733.26$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.02 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed Yes | 47c | 730$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.33 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed No | 69c | 684.13$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.59 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1194…fae4backed Yes | 41c | 668.91$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.67 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 46c | 657.86$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.92 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa357…6485backed Yes | 48c | 626.25$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.65 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 31cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes | 49c | 613.39$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.39 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes | 40c | 600$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 57c | 592.6$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.43 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…9a2fbacked Yes | 34c | 588.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.24 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 20c | 575.63$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.5 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 32c | 570$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e22…d7e3backed Yes | 34c | 564.14$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…c82bbacked No | 59c | 560.75$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3153…85a9backed Yes | 39c | 552.2$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 67c | 550.79$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.81 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…71f4backed Yes | 33c | 535$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 59c | 515.99$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.03 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8773…302fbacked Yes | 39c | 515.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 66c | 506$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.2 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0537…5b0fbacked No | 28c | 500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…0f4ebacked Yes | 35c | 500$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 65c | 493.31$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.83 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 36c | 485.69$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.69 | 170 | 21.2%36 W · 134 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 65c | 457.14$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.14 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb206…f717backed Yes | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed No | 60c | 385$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8924backed No | 71c | 367.51$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6906…9cbdbacked No | 67c | 360$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.05 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d6…86fdbacked Yes | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 70c | 357.13$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.99 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645e…d120backed No | 65c | 350$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 53c | 346.8$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.21 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95f6…d035backed Yes | 29c | 345$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…ce9fbacked Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…ae37backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes | 33c | 333.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.33 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 34c | 323.06$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 66c | 320.08$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.57 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 31c | 317.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2804…05c7backed Yes | 44c | 314.26$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 312.04$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.46 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30b9…9b83backed No | 71c | 311.48$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked No | 62c | 308.95$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 56c | 303.92$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.05 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 67c | 300$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 38c | 298.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.9 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 32c | 295.76$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.76 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…02dabacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 38cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf60d…9ec9backed Yes | 32c | 294.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…1800backed No | 68c | 292.59$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ff…10f4backed Yes | 34c | 291.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.5 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 36c | 280.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.17 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 30c | 280$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…e7d5backed Yes | 36c | 277.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b2…f94bbacked Yes | 36c | 276.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes | 44c | 275.68$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.68 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…3600backed Yes | 35c | 270.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.68 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…a1d1backed Yes | 30c | 266.67$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.