TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$206,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$214,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $206,042 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x58d2…0357backed Yes50c10,109$5,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,054.69250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b47…2f60backed No50c9,910$4,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,955.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x069a…9ac0backed No54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,700333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3b1…7934backed No56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,800560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea6…d698backed Yes44c5,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,800540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f4…4719backed No51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7246…a3dbbacked Yes49c5,000$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+51%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe9b…aabfbacked Yes46c5,000$2,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,700540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes66c4,554$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,554.292185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+28.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed No43c4,329$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.9514135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed No41c3,928$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.462119%4 W · 17 L-4.3wins-0.21per pick40cpaid-41.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No18c3,680$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.223859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes54c3,655$1,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,679.2112531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71ca…3501backed No34c3,333$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.211435.7%5 W · 9 L-3.5wins-0.25per pick61cpaid-41.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No37c2,958$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.023542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes57c2,882$1,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.366021.7%13 W · 47 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-26.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa880…d095backed Yes66c2,854$1,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.111030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-56.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x06bc…265ebacked No25c2,691$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.88616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No38c2,454$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.37931.6%25 W · 54 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+32.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac1c…a9a2backed No45c2,355$1,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,066.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No34c2,135$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.8121022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes66c2,006$1,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.061154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No30c2,000$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.988127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8e…3c44backed No48c1,980$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9632…15b6backed No49c1,930$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d4f…00d8backed No50c1,915$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No41c1,897$777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.4313540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab76…8c37backed Yes52c1,880$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b80…ad84backed Yes51c1,813$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c87…f49ebacked Yes76c1,791$1,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…07d4backed Yes65c1,716$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$596.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b49…d0dfbacked Yes59c1,700$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa1f…90c0backed No37c1,655$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.36250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ee9…466dbacked Yes68c1,633$1,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-26.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked No32c1,388$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.644143.9%18 W · 23 L+6.7wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+88.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3c5d…d382backed Yes73c1,373$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes60c1,371$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.5737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ccc…e832backed Yes69c1,241$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-20.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53e…7bb3backed No32c1,235$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399130%0 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No34c1,186$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.996354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb73…2620backed No28c1,138$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.73616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick46cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes55c1,079$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.917225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa09b…db3dbacked Yes59c1,067$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$438.44728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No8c1,057$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8737740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes56c1,033$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450.352352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x684b…0601backed No43c1,031$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.222045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe77f…4374backed No45c1,020$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes63c1,000$630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3707354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Yes55c999.99$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No37c999.99$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3708150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No3c917.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.543953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0f50…4db9backed No34c837.97$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.512544%11 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No38c819.93$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.975740.4%23 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked No10c800$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.712161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes77c796.73$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.8823149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes62c777$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.2441238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x578c…9661backed Yes66c761.59$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.587638.2%29 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8a…dd75backed Yes55c727.81$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc8…7d08backed Yes62c727.27$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.878750.6%44 W · 43 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc7a9…2eb5backed Yes55c700.09$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.643100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+110.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc54…680fbacked No39c694.7$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.837045.7%32 W · 38 L+7.5wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+66.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8754…7641backed No11c655.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8080…5127backed No43c639.62$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-74.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a08…5014backed Yes65c620.83$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.81333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-48.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c09…dfb9backed No38c620.67$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.54714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes66c606.79$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.794339.5%17 W · 26 L-4.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x138d…24febacked Yes43c603.24$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0a3…cc69backed Yes70c599.99$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1802040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked No32c583.55$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.633129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7465…1a98backed Yes55c555.86$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No20c531.91$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.052245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d9…d32abacked No40c517.49$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.233545.7%16 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c1d…c4c8backed No10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick28cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked No47c499.99$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.997254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed No36c499.97$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.993231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea8…756abacked No46c493.33$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.6150%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes60c490.24$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.532029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked No43c469.91$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.667825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3150…538cbacked Yes80c456.67$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.33425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No39c447.91$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.812729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabe4…1996backed No8c446.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-72.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb56b…45f2backed Yes56c435$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+59.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x54e2…5009backed Yes64c433.38$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.02540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-28.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x404c…4138backed No47c428.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-46.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b94…8183backed Yes64c427.55$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.981838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes57c422.95$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.871361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x71f7…0fb5backed No48c420.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No30c405.96$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12212649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf15b…0934backed No31c400$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.84714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick28cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No38c394.74$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15021634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed71…da06backed Yes52c381.61$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes65c380$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.34429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x679a…01d0backed Yes53c374.06$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8496…fa6cbacked Yes56c356.48$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.482536%9 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes69c346.17$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.49728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-61.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x835d…62dcbacked Yes67c342.18$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.181136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed No32c340.22$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf75b…672ebacked Yes59c339.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+85.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e5…53bdbacked Yes63c337.36$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.681172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.