Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x416ac841640ac336fa57003c936cf1e3f80db9ff0298c252af8e70f2db01099d

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $24,802

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,559 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x134a…9e42backed Yes	62c	6,315$3,921 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,394.32	126	49.2%62 W · 64 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa027…e1d5backed Yes	7c	1,652$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,540.93	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.9wins	+0.93per pick	7cpaid	+1,386.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes	1c	1,407$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,392.93	111	20.7%23 W · 88 L	+10.9wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+212.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes	1c	1,407$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,392.92	111	21.6%24 W · 87 L	+11.4wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+179.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked No	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes	7c	649.99$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$606.99	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No	74c	640$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.03	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xabe4…1996backed No	10c	603.44$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.88	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeeca…9826backed Yes	20c	543.18$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.18	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	81	50.6%41 W · 40 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No	75c	500$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9156…5932backed Yes	24c	478.67$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$363.87	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes	30c	440$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.8	159	24.5%39 W · 120 L	-4.8wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No	78c	430$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.2	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes	23c	394.45$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$305.12	86	46.5%40 W · 46 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No	4c	375$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+96.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No	55c	311.69$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.07	236	39.4%93 W · 143 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes	59c	306.45$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125.61	180	33.3%60 W · 120 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	28c	289.08$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$208.41	996	29.5%294 W · 702 L	-73.3wins	-0.07per pick	37cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed No	63c	250$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes	40c	227.77$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.5	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes	30c	202.6$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.83	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-3.7wins	-0.15per pick	31cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed No	66c	194.31$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.24	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.11per pick	55cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7720…b3c9backed Yes	47c	190.36$89 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.49	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-57.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No	70c	170.45$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.15	83	77.1%64 W · 19 L	+8.9wins	+0.11per pick	66cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes	32c	154.43$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104.43	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+146.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6884…517cbacked Yes	28c	143.31$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.31	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	71c	140$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.9	235	43.8%103 W · 132 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-13%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd36…e7d5backed Yes	18c	136.89$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.89	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ebc…ad77backed No	78c	119.2$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.48	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.20per pick	34cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5dda…74e6backed Yes	48c	104.4$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.4	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.31per pick	47cpaid	-65.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No	77c	100$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	113	36.3%41 W · 72 L	-8.5wins	-0.07per pick	44cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d1e…5512backed Yes	16c	100$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c99…c1c0backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed No	38c	91.43$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc5d…38cebacked No	33c	90.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb64b…1d1dbacked Yes	34c	90$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.4	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-2.7wins	-0.27per pick	37cpaid	-70.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5e1…decdbacked Yes	40c	82.5$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.5	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No	79c	80.85$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.89	375	33.3%125 W · 250 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No	60c	80$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…2732backed No	70c	71.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.9	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe7b…1873backed No	76c	65.79$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	59cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed No	68c	62.25$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.21	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.6wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	81	34.6%28 W · 53 L	+3.1wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x328d…d16dbacked Yes	50c	60$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	24c	52$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.52	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	23c	50.1$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.58	567	33.2%188 W · 379 L	-40.9wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9a45…cf97backed No	69c	50$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x62b1…ca22backed No	73c	41.16$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.6wins	+0.29per pick	49cpaid	+71.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e63…5ebfbacked No	56c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc39a…2214backed Yes	27c	37.64$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.31	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	35cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa3…9f79backed Yes	56c	35.44$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.44	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-2.7wins	-0.30per pick	53cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes	64c	35$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.46	100	35%35 W · 65 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No	78c	31.8$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.8	118	48.3%57 W · 61 L	+13.0wins	+0.11per pick	37cpaid	+41.5%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0e4d…934dbacked No	78c	30.79$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.78per pick	78cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No	80c	22.61$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	151	55%83 W · 68 L	+3.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd85c…f69cbacked No	77c	19.98$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed No	79c	13.8$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event