Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7061eb9192f9adcfb34330b8fdb864cf3c95d11cb09c1a67937294d2dce478fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $526,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4cb5…b536backed Yes | 65c | 28,965$18,947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,947.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 36c | 20,590$7,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,208.22 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 65c | 19,153$12,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,530.49 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 33c | 18,242$6,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,171.28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 34c | 16,262$5,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,784.02 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 25c | 15,798$3,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,927.47 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 39c | 13,095$5,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,936.19 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 33c | 12,447$4,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,392.52 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacd9…3d87backed No | 37c | 12,363$4,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,845.89 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +124.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3d…2adbbacked Yes | 65c | 10,000$6,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,531.9 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…19e3backed No | 31c | 9,106$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,251.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 37c | 8,178$3,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,131.66 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 33c | 8,160$2,725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,435.21 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040e…8edfbacked No | 37c | 7,500$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,749.98 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 65c | 7,380$4,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,765.88 | 172 | 25%43 W · 129 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…51b7backed No | 37c | 6,748$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,251.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 50c | 6,603$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,330.52 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 62c | 5,587$3,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,472.03 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 66c | 5,584$3,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.54 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed No | 38c | 5,467$2,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,409.49 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…1ff4backed No | 52c | 5,429$2,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,599.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 27c | 5,328$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,889.58 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 38c | 5,138$1,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.93 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…9ac0backed Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…7934backed Yes | 76c | 5,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…d698backed No | 24c | 5,000$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,800 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f4…4719backed Yes | 75c | 5,000$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7246…a3dbbacked No | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +51%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…aabfbacked No | 25c | 5,000$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 32c | 5,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,419.89 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 59c | 4,597$2,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,714.04 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5d…d382backed Yes | 66c | 4,573$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 21c | 4,511$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,546.59 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a1…f6bbbacked Yes | 65c | 4,436$2,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,883.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdac7…908cbacked No | 37c | 4,174$1,552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c3…54c2backed Yes | 65c | 3,890$2,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,548.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…5208backed Yes | 73c | 3,636$2,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,642 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +217.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 29c | 3,583$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,553.78 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 37c | 3,538$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,227.59 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ae…4318backed Yes | 73c | 3,286$2,387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,387.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71dd…d61cbacked Yes | 63c | 3,195$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 28c | 3,167$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.17 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…0ff9backed Yes | 64c | 3,125$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 37c | 3,058$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.25 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…8a40backed Yes | 66c | 3,034$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d87…2ebabacked Yes | 66c | 3,012$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 36c | 3,012$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,927.49 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb8…e817backed Yes | 63c | 3,000$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc360…0c46backed Yes | 71c | 2,818$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 72c | 2,770$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x578c…9661backed Yes | 60c | 2,492$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac0…9d73backed Yes | 61c | 2,351$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6279…fb37backed Yes | 66c | 2,315$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6972…a73dbacked Yes | 74c | 2,272$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed Yes | 68c | 2,056$1,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,397.99 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90ca…5830backed Yes | 62c | 2,048$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Yes | 73c | 2,041$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…7bb3backed Yes | 73c | 2,033$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,483.35 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 32c | 2,006$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.51 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…5827backed Yes | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 38c | 2,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.98 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x410a…e8b8backed Yes | 67c | 1,907$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.42 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28a0…9884backed No | 35c | 1,867$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,213.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…0cdbbacked Yes | 55c | 1,805$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccee…3eb7backed Yes | 67c | 1,800$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.9 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 19c | 1,783$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,441.4 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 57c | 1,754$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 38c | 1,721$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.11 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 64c | 1,655$1,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,054.1 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 31c | 1,600$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.95 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa55f…c3d6backed No | 27c | 1,583$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.81 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +104.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa880…d095backed Yes | 64c | 1,552$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fb…5bb6backed Yes | 65c | 1,541$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f9…38d5backed Yes | 63c | 1,506$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950.22 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 34c | 1,500$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…e662backed No | 31c | 1,500$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes | 65c | 1,413$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.54 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a78…9f4fbacked Yes | 71c | 1,413$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes | 60c | 1,403$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$841.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a2…8078backed Yes | 73c | 1,392$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7528…18f9backed Yes | 70c | 1,387$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…804fbacked Yes | 73c | 1,366$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e9…33f3backed Yes | 74c | 1,351$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 75c | 1,336$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 60c | 1,333$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Yes | 60c | 1,285$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.17 | 174 | 52.9%92 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,216$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.6 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 25c | 1,103$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.37 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 1,094$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.08 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08b4…6d02backed Yes | 66c | 1,063$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…e880backed Yes | 27c | 1,050$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…4aa7backed Yes | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…b06ebacked Yes | 65c | 961.81$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.33 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754a…4754backed Yes | 61c | 961.51$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa830…e2d3backed Yes | 63c | 952.38$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x835d…62dcbacked No | 43c | 930.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 36c | 919.58$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.37 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed Yes | 60c | 918.91$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 39c | 890.62$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.1 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "America" 15 or more times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Biden" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "January 6" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Kamala" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "Los Angeles" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "McDonald's" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "border" 5 or more times during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "ceasefire" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "god" 4+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "mandate" 3+ times during his inauguration speech?Yes won
- Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?No won
- Will Trump say "trans" during his inauguration speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.