TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "hell" during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,470
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,385

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,470 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1eca…63a9backed Yes19c2,050$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.8670%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No73c999.97$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes16c944.68$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.563859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No69c889.18$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.418453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No73c823.57$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.3510055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No74c815.65$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.652254.5%12 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Yes26c800$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2083231.3%10 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-26.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1571…58b4backed No73c540.42$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53e…7bb3backed Yes27c515.56$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.2130%0 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes24c424.51$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.51156.7%1 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.22per pick28cpaid-88.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No74c423.08$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1102352.2%12 W · 11 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick62cpaid+0.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aef…9337backed No70c399.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa359…4c74backed No75c398.65$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4f1…ae37backed Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-57.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c355.65$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.0699629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No76c334.45$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.068646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No70c332.37$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.711435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked Yes25c322.34$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.112425%6 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc766…15b3backed Yes30c318.03$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bfd…184bbacked Yes36c307.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f90…90ccbacked Yes34c291.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x438e…9704backed No75c270.16$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.031553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+58.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No72c255.7$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.558377.1%64 W · 19 L+8.9wins+0.11per pick66cpaid+15.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No76c250$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ae…82bdbacked Yes26c249.57$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.912516%4 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No65c226.27$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.198134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes27c222.22$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601414.3%2 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-68.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xc76c…7d8bbacked Yes44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.860%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5223639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed No56c180$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.237844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes24c179.39$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9618914.3%27 W · 162 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89a5…cd84backed Yes28c178.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed Yes27c176.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.133435.3%12 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49ce…b599backed Yes29c174.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ce…f646backed No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.51154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeebf…065ebacked Yes38c131.9$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-78.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7dd…1e23backed No77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.873842.1%16 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No78c128.66$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.666354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe191…bac4backed Yes20c125.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick33cpaid-83.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No79c112.05$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5314742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked Yes28c109.36$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.621136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c103.11$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa779…5772backed Yes24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c72…1e3abacked Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.751435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7881…4568backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe94…7bb6backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.9wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-54.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.814460.4%87 W · 57 L+16.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8811…5cf4backed Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.15per pick24cpaid-49.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes26c98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.481,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked No77c90.42$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.653735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a4a…5ffdbacked Yes24c88.07$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7073…420cbacked Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7f3f…0468backed Yes23c85.93$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-39.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaae…ec88backed Yes19c80$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc3…7865backed No78c79.99$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x671e…6239backed Yes28c75.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes37c72.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x347a…83e3backed Yes31c70.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.014233.3%14 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x432a…fb18backed Yes29c69.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No76c63.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.417355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes21c62.44$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1898…100bbacked Yes27c55.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4470…e93bbacked Yes28c51.61$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.45147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick23cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74eb…03ddbacked No79c50.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-57.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6391…bc1cbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-72%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d15…c9dabacked No77c47.55$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2664…5cfcbacked Yes24c42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-56.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d78…b323backed Yes29c40.68$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81010%1 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick37cpaid-84.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5a1…4198backed Yes34c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.430%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa749…056bbacked Yes28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick50cpaid-74.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdd36…e7d5backed No80c31.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.251833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf99d…bd1ebacked Yes36c30.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-83.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9693…8e80backed No78c25.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.64666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4eaf…2e38backed No70c21.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.43785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick68cpaid+24.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.023767.6%25 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+14.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb1e…230abacked No74c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.92352.2%12 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe847…f8bdbacked No80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick66cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.