TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "TikTok" during his inauguration speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$393,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$397,225

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $393,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 441 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5095…c97cbacked No73c26,879$19,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,348.347354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No80c21,600$17,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,363.358453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked No78c20,099$15,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,324.031546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb11…d6bebacked Yes27c17,033$4,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,520.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No76c15,641$11,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,778.621931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-40.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No75c14,994$11,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,774.932365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed No75c13,119$9,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,302.173953.8%21 W · 18 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+124.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdadd…e141backed Yes3c12,560$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.58333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-55%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes23c12,149$2,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,814.72626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes13c11,627$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.573859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No75c10,397$7,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,626.837458.1%43 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7015…9d47backed Yes27c8,916$2,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,419.6720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9432…17d2backed Yes17c8,603$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes25c8,570$2,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,179.517850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No74c7,657$5,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,985.9615646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd262…8553backed Yes34c7,356$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes21c7,193$1,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.0321022.4%47 W · 163 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-24.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fca…ed37backed Yes25c6,749$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28a0…9884backed No75c6,608$4,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,671.1771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes4c6,373$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.393023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d1f…c9c6backed Yes16c6,037$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No72c5,944$4,286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,657.6821935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb2a…a436backed Yes24c5,944$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.71812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-67.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42ef…8686backed Yes21c5,467$1,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.0640%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0f5…aea4backed Yes26c5,413$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-41.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e4…cd38backed Yes27c5,000$1,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.85714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-56.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d60…a726backed Yes22c4,664$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.83520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-74%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08d6…7ec9backed Yes27c4,662$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No76c4,593$3,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,105.038134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf212…1f9fbacked Yes20c4,466$881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4993…1a38backed Yes23c4,270$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No69c4,125$2,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,280.8123149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0537…5b0fbacked No70c3,950$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,190.392729.6%8 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes25c3,600$914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.7811336.3%41 W · 72 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x40d3…4e5ebacked Yes27c3,515$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.491010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-70.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbabe…ee53backed Yes26c3,350$871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eca…63a9backed Yes4c3,315$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.2570%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x040e…8edfbacked No79c3,015$2,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$630.873542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16cf…639fbacked No78c3,005$2,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$654.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No73c3,000$2,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8041968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x54fc…a48cbacked Yes14c2,955$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.71421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid+3.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9156…5932backed Yes21c2,605$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.76825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa745…39c8backed Yes22c2,548$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No79c2,500$1,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$521.7811950.4%60 W · 59 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes21c2,490$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.4517021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x018a…442abacked No78c2,440$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.39875%6 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed No78c2,343$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.211566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2545…448ebacked Yes33c2,143$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67a4…7069backed No76c2,125$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.451861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf507…525bbacked No76c2,026$1,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.221361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes26c2,003$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.381827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf407…10f7backed Yes17c1,820$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No75c1,794$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.1510055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes18c1,654$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.714422.7%10 W · 34 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd9dd…b525backed Yes25c1,602$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.491414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9acf…6f8bbacked Yes26c1,544$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No78c1,513$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.4337740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64d7…73a1backed No79c1,500$1,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3114953.1%26 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes27c1,498$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick25cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes5c1,489$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4480%0 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ac7…6b3abacked Yes25c1,407$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.211361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+58%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No78c1,381$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.026354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fa3…7948backed Yes25c1,372$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.181154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd4e…110cbacked Yes14c1,367$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd087…b390backed Yes3c1,295$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.681040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+45.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85c3…269bbacked No77c1,291$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.33666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No77c1,247$961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.1199629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x788f…3f0ebacked Yes15c1,200$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1840…6374backed No77c1,149$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.17450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes17c1,135$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.717556%42 W · 33 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd170…ef28backed Yes27c1,116$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-50%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked No80c1,094$873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.1914742.9%63 W · 84 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d3…ed8dbacked Yes23c1,056$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.72728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed No77c1,018$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.781080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+29.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x888a…1b1fbacked Yes27c1,011$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No77c1,011$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadd4…af2ebacked Yes25c955.1$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.12633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes11c941.98$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.54277.4%2 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-70.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No74c934.62$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.922560%15 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3d…83f8backed Yes27c926.61$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25070%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No74c911.31$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.6420446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Yes26c873.48$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.375326.4%14 W · 39 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked No79c867.97$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.152948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed No67c850.29$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.62075%15 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+28.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb206…f717backed Yes12c845.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff09…56ffbacked Yes24c823.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a4…0e62backed Yes25c814.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x157e…c040backed Yes29c768.1$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No73c726.97$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.1313556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes25c720.84$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.51527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c9b…0fb8backed Yes26c715.08$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7465…1a98backed Yes25c700$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.51616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-69.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e32…2f89backed Yes24c697.9$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.630%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x73f0…3d28backed Yes20c678$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.962015%3 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x10e9…33f3backed No75c669.26$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-33.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes22c660$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.8317355.5%96 W · 77 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa357…1045backed Yes25c648.33$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.3780%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes16c634.24$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes22c619.36$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.517452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x62dd…869abacked No80c607.23$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-68.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.