Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb21bb50beb84ad087d1b7694d32dd423f77a6588b6c31c0b10a0322785b8759

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 20, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $60,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $63,510

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,466 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes	74c	14,352$10,636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,635.84	70	41.4%29 W · 41 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfde6…7ed6backed No	24c	4,135$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,135.31	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No	30c	3,638$1,077 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,560.8	81	27.2%22 W · 59 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	33c	3,130$1,038 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,092.42	95	35.8%34 W · 61 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes	13c	2,718$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	31	29%9 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No	26c	2,222$578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,644.27	135	40%54 W · 81 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No	26c	2,000$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,480	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cf4…faaabacked No	52c	1,833$954 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$879.35	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8fb…5bb6backed Yes	61c	1,649$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x866d…4d7dbacked No	30c	1,516$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,066.3	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	45cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8f6…6e65backed Yes	51c	1,500$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$770	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No	29c	1,355$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$967.35	210	22.4%47 W · 163 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed Yes	6c	1,255$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.37	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	+58.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No	46c	1,180$545 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$635.1	32	68.8%22 W · 10 L	+5.9wins	+0.18per pick	50cpaid	+34.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9b35…a749backed No	24c	878.96$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$668.21	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.24per pick	26cpaid	+90.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd834…65d2backed No	47c	861.03$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$457.43	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3407…c3ebbacked Yes	76c	860$650 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$650.11	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	61cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x873c…ac48backed No	27c	792.75$211 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$582.2	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+41%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc631…76f6backed No	34c	759.45$257 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.79	57	42.1%24 W · 33 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No	35c	712.64$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$459.74	320	29.1%93 W · 227 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06bc…265ebacked No	41c	709.94$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.91	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-59.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes	75c	703.55$529 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.3	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.28per pick	42cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c89…8fcbbacked Yes	75c	688.91$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.68	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.4wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x343b…f8f4backed Yes	49c	668.61$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.62	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No	25c	628.8$159 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$469.89	169	43.2%73 W · 96 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes	70c	502.4$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf507…525bbacked Yes	73c	462.57$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$338.1	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	67cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65bc…1a5cbacked Yes	74c	460.32$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.97	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.7wins	-0.45per pick	61cpaid	-79%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb572…9239backed Yes	69c	434.78$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	43	39.5%17 W · 26 L	-4.0wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x203b…86c8backed No	23c	425.63$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.63	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3b94…8183backed No	49c	410.68$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$210.68	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db0…edb0backed No	28c	409.23$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$296.43	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed No	27c	400$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292	32	31.3%10 W · 22 L	-3.1wins	-0.10per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ecb…070fbacked Yes	56c	381.67$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.83	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb73…2620backed Yes	75c	362.66$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.29per pick	46cpaid	-71%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No	35c	361.83$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$233.75	231	49.4%114 W · 117 L	+7.6wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7881…4568backed Yes	73c	325$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.25	12	66.7%8 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fd3…7214backed No	72c	322.77$233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$89.37	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	45cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…57edbacked No	27c	309.8$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$227.5	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+3.3wins	+0.21per pick	35cpaid	+98%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes	69c	304.7$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.11	375	33.3%125 W · 250 L	-17.1wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No	32c	303.18$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$205.62	86	46.5%40 W · 46 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf15b…0934backed No	34c	300$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$197.81	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	28cpaid	-58.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9916…a2b2backed Yes	58c	288.25$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.33	37	43.2%16 W · 21 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x73e5…53bdbacked Yes	73c	272.97$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	66cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x249a…f15bbacked Yes	74c	269.92$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.5wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7c10…853fbacked No	64c	266.08$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+56.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed No	74c	255.27$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.37	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No	25c	250$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$187.5	103	47.6%49 W · 54 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Yes	68c	245$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.71	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-4.3wins	-0.21per pick	40cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a14…3c37backed Yes	71c	225$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.4	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc3c4…55cfbacked Yes	56c	214.43$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.34	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc90…6eb4backed Yes	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	57cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa743…6a3ebacked Yes	66c	200$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6573…ab02backed Yes	38c	200$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed Yes	63c	194.68$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.93	83	77.1%64 W · 19 L	+8.9wins	+0.11per pick	66cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes	54c	180$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.2	79	43%34 W · 45 L	-5.3wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes	56c	179.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	+75.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked Yes	70c	174$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.4	29	34.5%10 W · 19 L	-3.0wins	-0.10per pick	45cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes	54c	158.74$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.72	73	54.8%40 W · 33 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	47cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b14…a86cbacked Yes	63c	158.4$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd01f…74abbacked No	28c	158.23$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.23	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.32per pick	35cpaid	+86.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed No	26c	155.14$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.8	40	40%16 W · 24 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+82.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0e44…dfd8backed Yes	55c	150$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes	53c	150$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.9	77	39%30 W · 47 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe327…ec05backed Yes	73c	150$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.4wins	-0.36per pick	61cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x229c…7d80backed No	37c	144.26$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.36	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f5a…1d35backed Yes	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-3.9wins	-0.28per pick	42cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80ac…6ac9backed Yes	74c	135.14$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f91…0df5backed Yes	74c	134.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-2.1wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No	27c	134.13$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97.71	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.06per pick	39cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec73…8a38backed No	75c	133.33$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.33	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed No	23c	130.43$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100.43	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No	24c	130$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.2	377	40.6%153 W · 224 L	-4.5wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8e…0cc4backed No	28c	130$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.6	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	+2.5wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb7d5…d734backed Yes	78c	128.21$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.26per pick	59cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507d…728dbacked Yes	53c	124.01$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.73	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+83.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b06…0b42backed Yes	32c	122.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-3.8wins	-0.17per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes	54c	120.37$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-6.9wins	-0.27per pick	42cpaid	-78.4%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x895e…d18dbacked No	29c	120.34$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.44	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b35…6998backed Yes	74c	120$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.34per pick	54cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05be…c288backed Yes	33c	119.84$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No	30c	118.07$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.65	286	36.7%105 W · 181 L	-10.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b9b…2f7cbacked Yes	65c	114.7$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.0wins	-0.39per pick	59cpaid	-68.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed Yes	72c	112.69$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.14	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	62cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a45…cf97backed No	33c	110.95$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.85	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccaa…9066backed No	32c	109$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.12	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes	64c	108.58$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.49	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03cb…4bf9backed Yes	76c	105.26$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd36…e7d5backed No	24c	105$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77dc…cd86backed No	68c	102.94$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.94	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	88	47.7%42 W · 46 L	+10.8wins	+0.12per pick	35cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed No	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.7	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+951.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes	74c	100$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	25	64%16 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	65cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cbc…96a6backed No	29c	100$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.15per pick	46cpaid	+18.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9ee…cf2cbacked Yes	77c	100$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.8	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	45cpaid	-37%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef8c…2686backed Yes	30c	100$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.19per pick	36cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb259…dbc7backed Yes	53c	100$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked No	27c	100$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes	76c	100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	44	29.5%13 W · 31 L	-3.8wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2ae…8072backed Yes	74c	100$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event