TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0665…4c8f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
69
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 57 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid+75.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.75
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+1,900%+$285
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$41
Trump ends taxes on tips in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$58.92
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$47.5
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+89.2%+$171.99
Birthright citizenship ban blocked in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+25.2%+$15.12
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "middle class" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+47.9%+$9.58
Will Trump say "illegal immigrant" or "illegal immigration" during his inauguration speech? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trump say "MAGA" 4 or more times during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick26cpaid+111.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.6
Will Italy recognize Palestine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$103.69
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+488.2%+$249
Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST+661.1%+$312.7
Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+128.9%+$73.2
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+528%+$109.3
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+23.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+100%+$40.4
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.9%+$35.44
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.08
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+400%+$142.4
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$9.2
Will an open-source AI model become Top 3 this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$42Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$28
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+33.3%+$17.5
Will DeepSeek still be #1 Free app on Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2025, EST-100%-$32.2
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 11 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-57.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50.67
Russian strike on a NATO member by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$10.42
More EU sanctions on Russia by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$42
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.44
Another Russian incursion in Polish airspace by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$18
Will Trump meet with Emmanuel Macron in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$16.2
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$53
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$109.9
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$66.04
All 10 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$18
Will Carlos Moedas be elected Mayor of Lisbon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$8.5
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+397.9%+$950.38
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$95.65
Yoon released from custody before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$159.07
Will AfD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will SPD win the second most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Trudeau resign by Wednesday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Trudeau resign by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+68.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+288.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will $TRUMP hit $25B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+540.8%+$121.14
Will $TRUMP hit $10B FDV by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2025, EST+36.1%+$21.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump attend SpaceX Starship Flight Test 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+37.3%+$67.51
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
TikTok sale announced before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$204.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.