Earnings · resolved market
Will Micron Tech (MU) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e239208880ea9b54399187b5c71cd7c21b4ae80c1ed1693aa2cedaee3823931
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 10c | 14,373$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 13c | 2,163$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.8 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 54c | 1,600$863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.41 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 47cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 8c | 983.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 8c | 927$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd687…c066backed No | 16c | 690.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed No | 14c | 638.88$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 38c | 632.62$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.22 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6a90backed No | 11c | 623.31$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 19c | 599.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3035backed No | 13c | 577.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 11c | 566.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 3c | 466.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 12c | 465.6$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.62 | 189 | 41.3%78 W · 111 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed No | 15c | 445.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 38c | 425.44$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.16 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 10c | 407.6$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 41c | 371.55$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.01 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 40c | 371.52$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked No | 13c | 371.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 7c | 345.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 11c | 325$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 35c | 270$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 240.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 19c | 221.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…71b7backed No | 47c | 216$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.68 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 17c | 200.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9682…738bbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x304f…9a10backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed No | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…402cbacked No | 13c | 178.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 39cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b7…49fdbacked No | 11c | 170.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 15c | 170.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 67c | 166.06$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 7c | 155.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 80 | 12.5%10 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82e3…1fe4backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…7100backed No | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…f6a1backed Yes | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…364fbacked Yes | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked No | 16c | 126.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 80c | 122.41$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc1…d7acbacked No | 12c | 119.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x889d…2a06backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc64b…3655backed No | 14c | 98.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e40…ae56backed No | 14c | 84.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 23c | 73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked No | 15c | 71.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…686dbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84a8…db1fbacked No | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…31f1backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0821…005ebacked No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…5b50backed Yes | 54c | 25.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…d7adbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.