Middle East · resolved market
Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3bc9c2a4411958eac252d2a24eac6ae8fb369cde97ac76655f503197b7f3c27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe22…4026backed Yes | 4c | 8,153$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56a1…7b89backed Yes | 5c | 2,632$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae3…bc70backed Yes | 11c | 2,356$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.77 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…df18backed Yes | 9c | 1,116$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8a…23debacked Yes | 2c | 835.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…f471backed Yes | 3c | 705.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 6c | 595.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 10c | 562.5$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdac…547abacked Yes | 3c | 559.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…5536backed Yes | 9c | 554$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 8c | 525.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 10c | 501.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…290ebacked Yes | 8c | 499.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -31%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 483.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92a0…5218backed Yes | 3c | 482.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa3…16e5backed Yes | 11c | 450.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…0b1abacked Yes | 4c | 450$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…a183backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 37cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…fd9cbacked Yes | 3c | 439.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9f…2a4fbacked Yes | 10c | 433.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dc…b1d3backed Yes | 6c | 424.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e96…0b3bbacked Yes | 8c | 408.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 401.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cf…a0b7backed Yes | 3c | 401.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1b…9e26backed Yes | 3c | 400.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked Yes | 18c | 365.08$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac9…155abacked Yes | 10c | 361.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 4c | 354.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 314.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.39 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853b…eff5backed Yes | 8c | 295.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4485backed Yes | 8c | 252.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15c5…bc28backed Yes | 10c | 207.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…de39backed Yes | 7c | 206.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5145…ec79backed Yes | 10c | 198.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…32ccbacked Yes | 16c | 156.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 11c | 142.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked Yes | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd6…b04abacked Yes | 15c | 129.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…b9c7backed Yes | 18c | 114.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db3…cd7bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1122…2e16backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a0…3762backed Yes | 16c | 70.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by December 31?this page
- Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by September 10?No won
- Will Greta Thunberg enter Gaza by September 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.