AI · resolved market
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed62fe317871a7be652379134b37e90f791f97603d48badc29d47652c7f07f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 24c | 6,602$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.07 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 39c | 4,944$1,935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,935.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 20c | 4,374$865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$864.9 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 68c | 2,306$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.81 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed No | 19c | 2,084$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x767f…13dcbacked No | 19c | 1,980$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9049…de85backed No | 22c | 1,975$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…1322backed Yes | 69c | 1,756$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.55 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 70c | 1,594$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed Yes | 72c | 1,501$1,073 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.62 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 16c | 1,100$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…9d7dbacked No | 17c | 1,098$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 60c | 1,083$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.64 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed No | 10c | 999.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 9c | 988.85$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.09 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked No | 19c | 885.68$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.8 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…adbebacked No | 15c | 699.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd29…a638backed No | 16c | 540.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 10c | 537.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked No | 11c | 515.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddb…7c73backed No | 24c | 464.87$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 61c | 460$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.25 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…93e6backed No | 24c | 418.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…b899backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49af…9a0fbacked No | 15c | 334.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 35c | 300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 14c | 237.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…e597backed No | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf1…e6b4backed No | 14c | 210.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 12c | 205.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d6…9ab8backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 30c | 174.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…7745backed Yes | 43c | 144.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…e2febacked No | 14c | 129.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked No | 17c | 124.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…92c6backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked Yes | 52c | 89.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.07 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…6914backed No | 14c | 87.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 60.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 80c | 60.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 79c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 78c | 54.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd86…c51fbacked Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 28c | 44.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…35c4backed Yes | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…9d06backed Yes | 80c | 16.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404e…ffb3backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.