AI · resolved market
Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a7ae26c507f02bc9b3651cd1ec8099befdad9800b7bc2a9490d0501a2020d6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,868
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,868 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 1,806$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 8c | 1,716$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.69 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,523$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7800…eae9backed Yes | 2c | 1,483$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 4c | 1,399$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.21 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,088$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 4c | 930.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 6c | 777.88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 5c | 776$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 716.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 4c | 663.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…2d13backed Yes | 3c | 645.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d8…183ebacked Yes | 6c | 618.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa372…1b3ebacked Yes | 3c | 504.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +413.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 5c | 452$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb25a…8789backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e9b…fc84backed Yes | 6c | 360$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 235.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…033fbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2526…32f6backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.