AI · resolved market
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c7e04861e982fbff7284d62a759104f601e99be50728e01df59d4ba95def0ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,441
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $134,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,441 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 3,068$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,787$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,710$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 7c | 1,225$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.43 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 4c | 991.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4314…f506backed Yes | 7c | 887$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 7c | 782.01$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1f…ede7backed Yes | 2c | 757.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 745.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 2c | 697.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 7c | 656.93$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…3871backed Yes | 7c | 634$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaab…f14bbacked Yes | 6c | 599$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…e2c8backed Yes | 6c | 566.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 565.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a04…6159backed Yes | 6c | 544$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed Yes | 2c | 527$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…4ceebacked Yes | 6c | 527$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…c95ebacked Yes | 5c | 509$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4878…cb92backed Yes | 6c | 447$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2e…be4cbacked Yes | 8c | 439$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2481…117fbacked Yes | 7c | 428$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4163…4d7bbacked Yes | 7c | 427$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…9480backed Yes | 8c | 407$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…a4bdbacked Yes | 6c | 404$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4581…4293backed Yes | 8c | 394$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x372c…9018backed Yes | 10c | 384$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…e5b7backed Yes | 7c | 319$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…a207backed Yes | 8c | 309.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7332…5987backed Yes | 7c | 305$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5257…47a1backed Yes | 8c | 298$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…671dbacked Yes | 6c | 292$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d59…964abacked Yes | 8c | 285$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 5c | 281.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…1e38backed Yes | 8c | 281$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3aa…9703backed Yes | 8c | 267$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04c8…fdf8backed Yes | 7c | 265$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f14…1cacbacked Yes | 5c | 264$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a7…3867backed Yes | 5c | 254$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…9c0fbacked Yes | 6c | 252$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…18fbbacked Yes | 6c | 244$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6314…15aebacked Yes | 10c | 239$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…b162backed Yes | 10c | 234$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2377…8700backed Yes | 5c | 233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f8…dc24backed Yes | 8c | 231$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1084…6040backed Yes | 8c | 227$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2a…f35fbacked Yes | 8c | 221$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…d26ebacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…d2f0backed Yes | 8c | 217$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46a…9b1ebacked Yes | 8c | 213$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2030…4402backed Yes | 7c | 209$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…7a95backed Yes | 8c | 203$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x910c…cf60backed Yes | 8c | 203$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0b…f192backed Yes | 8c | 196$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…388fbacked Yes | 8c | 184$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c9…7aa6backed Yes | 8c | 183$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3695backed Yes | 7c | 180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…bf09backed Yes | 7c | 175$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dda…5dccbacked Yes | 8c | 175$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…7170backed Yes | 8c | 173$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca27…e168backed Yes | 7c | 169$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd178…1970backed Yes | 8c | 163$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f76…2d7ebacked Yes | 7c | 151$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff9…cd4ebacked Yes | 8c | 148$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fc…9861backed Yes | 8c | 146$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc228…3695backed Yes | 7c | 143$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…c985backed Yes | 10c | 143$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…1810backed Yes | 8c | 143$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x315b…b0d8backed Yes | 8c | 136$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ca…d8c0backed Yes | 10c | 130$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…709fbacked Yes | 8c | 128$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5506…3698backed Yes | 10c | 105$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.