AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab64fe2d2134eebaa2c87c9cdbcd82f3d8ca5af91172b3f6dbf562072a109e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $182,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $188,765
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $182,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x431d…a7d9backed No | 79c | 40,788$32,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,565.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…7191backed Yes | 21c | 40,788$8,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,565.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,687$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 12c | 2,413$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.42 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac9…8469backed Yes | 47c | 2,316$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f47…c792backed Yes | 9c | 1,839$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711b…fc5cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,528$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…2b2abacked Yes | 17c | 1,476$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 18c | 1,468$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.74 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b99…d1aabacked Yes | 32c | 1,411$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,289$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.67 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…cbe7backed Yes | 9c | 1,181$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 27c | 1,090$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.68 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 75c | 1,086$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.2 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 73c | 945.16$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.05 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 10c | 907.71$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.69 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 894.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 884.74$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.02 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 825$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 27c | 817.9$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.07 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 21c | 809.04$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 79c | 758$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.15 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 23c | 663$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.26 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 629.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 14c | 604.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 14c | 549.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 11c | 544.34$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.08 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 20c | 517.91$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab74…3996backed Yes | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 493.46$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 13c | 460$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…b913backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 17c | 410.4$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 10c | 408.16$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.01 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 15c | 364.59$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…3584backed No | 74c | 340$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 15c | 336.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e8…1493backed Yes | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…4ca0backed Yes | 29c | 287.17$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 9c | 261.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 70c | 236$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…512dbacked Yes | 29c | 226.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed Yes | 25c | 203.96$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…a55abacked Yes | 11c | 201.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 80c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…77acbacked No | 80c | 180$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 27c | 174.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 165.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed Yes | 12c | 165.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06f1…c324backed Yes | 32c | 158.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…a396backed Yes | 16c | 125.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 11c | 107.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…67ccbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 97.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 80c | 87.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 27c | 85.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 62c | 82.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed No | 68c | 77.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 21 | 90.5%19 W · 2 L | +5.1wins | +0.24per pick | 66cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28b4…8d97backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 21c | 54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…7cf7backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd0…b077backed Yes | 28c | 42.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.