AI · resolved market
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9e9b65ecbf6745cbf973377e93e12279a979ce1c311afc4678855b0459dead3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 7c | 1,924$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 8c | 1,596$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.61 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 8c | 1,364$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.22 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2f…dd1cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,276$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +100%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 7c | 982.13$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…96cfbacked Yes | 6c | 848$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 692$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…b356backed Yes | 5c | 635.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 11c | 609.6$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…4073backed Yes | 6c | 590$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec6…4900backed Yes | 5c | 571$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c61…ac8bbacked Yes | 9c | 550.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…a145backed Yes | 6c | 515$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…56f5backed Yes | 6c | 508$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…e3a0backed Yes | 3c | 501.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 4c | 483.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 8c | 478.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6647…e7fbbacked Yes | 6c | 477$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fa…c199backed Yes | 5c | 423$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96d8…1779backed Yes | 8c | 405$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x112e…191abacked Yes | 8c | 396$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 389.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…6755backed Yes | 6c | 385$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12c7…f3b1backed Yes | 6c | 384$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…93c2backed Yes | 6c | 379$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…7041backed Yes | 6c | 365$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…c555backed Yes | 8c | 357$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d57…8031backed Yes | 6c | 356$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6636…aa39backed Yes | 5c | 353$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482d…9153backed Yes | 6c | 342$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…cb0dbacked Yes | 6c | 329$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0277…751cbacked Yes | 6c | 323$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49a0…6dc4backed Yes | 6c | 319$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86af…54c0backed Yes | 6c | 318$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a7…2351backed Yes | 6c | 315$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…be9bbacked Yes | 5c | 276$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db4…aa21backed Yes | 6c | 275$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 268.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…10fdbacked Yes | 5c | 264.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…7266backed Yes | 6c | 262$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…6894backed Yes | 6c | 260$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea0…bb53backed Yes | 8c | 259$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86a…3747backed Yes | 8c | 257$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5190…926fbacked Yes | 6c | 253$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5d…4e96backed Yes | 8c | 251$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…07b4backed Yes | 6c | 241$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 240.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…d86cbacked Yes | 6c | 235$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…49f0backed Yes | 6c | 232$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…dceabacked Yes | 5c | 229$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27e3…86f3backed Yes | 6c | 218$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…84b3backed Yes | 5c | 218$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f3…79b9backed Yes | 5c | 216$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 5c | 210.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0d…8630backed Yes | 6c | 209$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7424…64c2backed Yes | 6c | 209$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x557b…af73backed Yes | 6c | 207$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 6c | 198$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe774…8127backed Yes | 6c | 198$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb2…4583backed Yes | 6c | 197$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf277…f634backed Yes | 6c | 191$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8f…c721backed Yes | 8c | 191$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e94…0f3bbacked Yes | 8c | 184$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x408f…18abbacked Yes | 8c | 183$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…892abacked Yes | 6c | 179$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a6…c50dbacked Yes | 8c | 175$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 7c | 163.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…1f2dbacked Yes | 8c | 158$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752c…693fbacked Yes | 8c | 156$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ebb…2556backed Yes | 8c | 145$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…9f67backed Yes | 8c | 142$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…ef6ebacked Yes | 7c | 136.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26a2…8783backed Yes | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.