AI · resolved market
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x437d6161e3d5cba4651270f78acaac4974914e7efff1f418e1dc89e52e1f5894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $308,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 115 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19d8…6466backed No | 65c | 59,004$38,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,651.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…26bbbacked Yes | 35c | 59,004$20,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,651.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179b…4398backed Yes | 32c | 32,006$10,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,241.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…918ebacked No | 68c | 32,006$21,764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,241.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed No | 78c | 7,231$5,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,589.57 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -5.3wins | -0.24per pick | 60cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 3c | 6,533$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.89 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 72c | 4,731$3,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.85 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,351$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 8c | 2,050$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…6387backed Yes | 28c | 1,924$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.16 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,744$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.08 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Yes | 12c | 1,710$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 74c | 1,700$1,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 1,587$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 27c | 1,380$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 76c | 1,200$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7800…eae9backed Yes | 2c | 1,039$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…4a1abacked Yes | 30c | 1,030$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked No | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 7c | 999.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 23c | 905.24$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf261…6b9cbacked No | 78c | 850.8$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked Yes | 25c | 786.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked No | 76c | 678.71$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 25c | 671.47$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.67 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 76c | 666$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b2d…f0d4backed Yes | 22c | 582.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 36c | 561.62$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 5c | 557$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f0…3213backed Yes | 28c | 528.73$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…ca4cbacked Yes | 3c | 458$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 444.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 33c | 438.46$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 25c | 420$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 2c | 419.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 71c | 417$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.88 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f2c…9ac6backed Yes | 28c | 406.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 3c | 405$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 399.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 10c | 396.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdafb…e4f7backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…8a9abacked Yes | 28c | 359.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 22c | 346.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…4c8cbacked Yes | 24c | 304.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.33 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…0004backed No | 77c | 258.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…3b38backed No | 79c | 252.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x132f…0e6ebacked Yes | 11c | 250$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 26c | 239.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…6f20backed Yes | 14c | 218.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…926fbacked Yes | 9c | 216.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed Yes | 10c | 195.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 31c | 193.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 30c | 190.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…20d7backed Yes | 28c | 181.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 22c | 180$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed No | 77c | 163.49$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…ebcdbacked No | 73c | 149.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…3b20backed No | 68c | 140$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…b6b5backed Yes | 29c | 139.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked Yes | 32c | 134.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe6…16f6backed No | 75c | 126.67$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.67 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…1d27backed Yes | 28c | 125$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…e3a0backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fbf6backed No | 75c | 117.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 24c | 110.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…77acbacked No | 74c | 109.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe561…a68dbacked Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…4cc3backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 20c | 97.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 185 | 44.3%82 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 28c | 96.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 70.2$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3e…7007backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…a396backed Yes | 29c | 69.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 69.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed No | 74c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 75c | 59.15$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47a3…cc7bbacked No | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…47debacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x221f…6be8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +143.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ecc…24c7backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…0b93backed No | 76c | 47.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 26c | 44.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…a283backed No | 75c | 41.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed No | 76c | 41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…cde7backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754e…e92abacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.