AI · resolved market
Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a003c3bdb158a523c1162957676e798bb978abd7dcee922da9d968c82d8687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $211,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $211,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed No | 1c | 53,071$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.8 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed No | 9c | 24,222$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.13 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec2…3d90backed No | 1c | 15,995$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +180.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…b5b3backed No | 2c | 7,993$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 2c | 5,754$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.15 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 1c | 5,717$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.74 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 41c | 5,073$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,004.68 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 15c | 3,513$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.09 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 74c | 2,123$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.51 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 51c | 1,765$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.99 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 23c | 1,528$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.94 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 23c | 1,366$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.42 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 78c | 1,100$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 27c | 985$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720.63 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked Yes | 23c | 900.76$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 45c | 737.19$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.76 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…9d85backed Yes | 35c | 717.98$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +275.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…9c6abacked No | 79c | 700$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9d…35c4backed No | 4c | 610$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 2c | 594$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66de…e831backed No | 2c | 433.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 6c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 78c | 345$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 81 | 22.2%18 W · 63 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 4c | 338.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 211 | 25.6%54 W · 157 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45a…95ebbacked No | 78c | 321.93$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed No | 9c | 314.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 79c | 300$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +1,039.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc2…df1ebacked No | 61c | 280.16$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 21c | 260$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.2 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes | 37c | 255.73$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 53c | 208.62$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98cb…aa35backed No | 61c | 206$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686a…6810backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fbf6backed No | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 177.3$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.44 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.55 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…0253backed No | 76c | 130$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed No | 14c | 129.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 59c | 120$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 118.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.37 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed Yes | 26c | 98.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +51%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked No | 12c | 96.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 75c | 92.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.97 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked No | 47c | 84.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…770dbacked No | 53c | 79.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4038…ca66backed No | 53c | 79.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3bf…4cc3backed No | 80c | 75.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…dee0backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba3…9592backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…3a19backed No | 63c | 56.38$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 52c | 55.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7af…2f7cbacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2732…3085backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 48c | 28.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.86 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd24…0416backed No | 68c | 20.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f57…e8b4backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.