AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bc71940759d1225300a190edbe20c275e86805475f1fa0a8e1b12b4d2df0291
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $603,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $603,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $603,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x257c…2cfebacked Yes | 44c | 83,547$36,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,760.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba75…5eedbacked No | 56c | 83,547$46,786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,760.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…c44ebacked No | 65c | 49,143$31,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,200.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…d295backed Yes | 35c | 49,143$17,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,200.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53c…563bbacked No | 65c | 35,175$22,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,311.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…f405backed Yes | 35c | 35,170$12,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,309.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…51b7backed Yes | 36c | 16,655$5,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,995.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb642…166bbacked No | 64c | 16,655$10,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,995.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +139.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 8,953$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.45 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 10c | 8,200$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.37 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 12c | 5,788$722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$721.85 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 8c | 4,447$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8422…a1ebbacked Yes | 3c | 3,888$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde31…4f59backed Yes | 15c | 3,730$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 19c | 3,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc008…cbe7backed Yes | 11c | 2,631$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 15c | 2,541$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.2 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 65c | 2,322$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.44 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401a…684bbacked Yes | 9c | 2,104$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 14c | 2,003$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.75 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 35c | 1,987$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.48 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…99ebbacked Yes | 1c | 1,985$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,686$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,670$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.96 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cf…6d85backed No | 74c | 1,600$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9997…1226backed Yes | 26c | 1,600$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b3…0d18backed Yes | 70c | 1,432$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed No | 71c | 1,399$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.83 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 10c | 1,396$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,377$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 9c | 1,310$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.89 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…2e8cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,301$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.78 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 21cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…ebccbacked Yes | 16c | 1,301$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…fc07backed Yes | 12c | 1,268$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 200 | 3.5%7 W · 193 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x600f…4392backed Yes | 8c | 1,197$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…fc9abacked No | 75c | 1,120$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…5d1abacked Yes | 25c | 1,120$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 11c | 1,119$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1453…a680backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 993.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 3c | 886$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 869.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 74c | 853.33$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked No | 71c | 853$604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.96 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…d1e3backed Yes | 3c | 808$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…57d3backed Yes | 19c | 769.99$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 13c | 767.79$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 13c | 734.08$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed No | 73c | 720.68$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bd…169abacked Yes | 3c | 707.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 67c | 706.99$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.18 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +8.1wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdcef…7388backed Yes | 3c | 699.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 52 | 1.9%1 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…90d3backed Yes | 9c | 670.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x924a…8af5backed Yes | 15c | 667.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1c…4405backed Yes | 43c | 640$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.6 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb29b…6d77backed Yes | 47c | 633.12$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 627.67$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa25…4ba0backed Yes | 3c | 615.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…0c91backed Yes | 45c | 600$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b99…d1aabacked Yes | 45c | 563$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Yes | 25c | 562$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.17 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…3584backed No | 58c | 560$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…0548backed Yes | 15c | 558.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0f…cd52backed No | 57c | 550$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +139.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x054a…013fbacked Yes | 43c | 550$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +53%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 44c | 539.06$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.94 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 18c | 526.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bf…aba5backed Yes | 19c | 513.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 3c | 509.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 3c | 501.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…1bb7backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…638dbacked Yes | 14c | 500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae18…1132backed Yes | 3c | 483.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 4c | 474$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 7c | 462.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 13c | 459.77$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…b913backed Yes | 11c | 444.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…9663backed Yes | 6c | 434.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 431.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5d…c6ddbacked Yes | 12c | 422.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…703cbacked Yes | 3c | 417$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 10c | 416.38$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked No | 61c | 413.05$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.58 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 74c | 412.9$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 10c | 408.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 13c | 404$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x872a…84c7backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 30c | 400$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 4c | 377.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.95 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 12c | 374.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed No | 67c | 355.65$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 354.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e47…43e0backed Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…5aafbacked Yes | 11c | 332.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.