AI · resolved market
Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x619b39c85b6019914dbbaf805d54a83b5855ab80b94f6ceb51db17d942d39dfe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a1b…1bd8backed No | 68c | 22,813$15,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,300.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…d685backed Yes | 32c | 22,813$7,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,300.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4573…51b7backed Yes | 35c | 17,044$5,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,965.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…c16abacked No | 65c | 17,044$11,079 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,965.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 21c | 2,870$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.1 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75a5…a5bfbacked Yes | 17c | 2,262$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…2caebacked Yes | 4c | 2,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,875$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 4c | 1,448$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 1,383$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae0…25e5backed Yes | 15c | 1,351$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 21c | 1,172$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked Yes | 19c | 1,095$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd8…2cf0backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes | 16c | 999.99$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +40%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 12c | 625$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.81 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +87.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 15c | 616.96$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 10cpaid | -94.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 20c | 577.65$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 15c | 547.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.81 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 537$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9491…3344backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 13c | 506.25$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 70 | 24.3%17 W · 53 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Yes | 2c | 503.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 7c | 408.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.4wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…6914backed Yes | 29c | 377.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 14c | 313.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 97 | 25.8%25 W · 72 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 79c | 278.71$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes | 18c | 271$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 72c | 267$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 78c | 264.83$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.51 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 75c | 249.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 15c | 220$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 13c | 215$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…148cbacked Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 14c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…87cfbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes | 8c | 199.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fa…10e7backed Yes | 16c | 158.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…6f20backed Yes | 14c | 143.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a0…beecbacked No | 74c | 135.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 12c | 133$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d14…823fbacked Yes | 14c | 125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdc…27bebacked Yes | 17c | 120$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9aa…e347backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…6be4backed Yes | 14c | 104.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a8…81f5backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…dee0backed No | 60c | 89.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 15c | 79.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -71%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed No | 67c | 79.83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 80c | 76.19$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c4…9bd5backed Yes | 16c | 75.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf258…e4b0backed No | 78c | 75.14$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4525…0f9dbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 35c | 52.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24b1…dcb7backed Yes | 25c | 47.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 77c | 41.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 80c | 28.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf27…5f0fbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 69c | 26.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta have a #1 AI model this year?this page
- Will 01A1 have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Alibaba have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will Nvidia have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
- Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year?No won
- Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.