TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7576…f961

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
80
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 58 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1776.5%13 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump end Department of Education in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.2
Will Trump launch an NFT before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2025, EDT+43.8%+$9.32
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+50.4%+$13.4
Federal employee charged as a result of DOGE investigation?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$41.4
Will Hillary Clinton be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$13.2
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$7
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlaybacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$21.2
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+202.1%+$66.9
Will TikTok be banned again before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Trump declassifies Diddy list?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+25.4%+$43.4
Will Trump end Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.89
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+45.6%+$23.5
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$282.07
Will Tulsi Gabbard be Trump’s Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+72.4%+$8.4
Will courts block DOGE access to Treasury payments before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2025, EST-100%-$13.8
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$54.83
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+41.5%+$26.17
All 17 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT1566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Bills (-3.5)backed Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$119
Commanders vs. Chargersbacked Chargers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$61
Cowboys vs. Jetsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$74.47
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)backed Dolphins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+88.7%+$50.37
Will Aaron Rodgers retire?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.6
Will Ashton Jeanty get drafted in the First Round?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+26.7%+$21.82
Will Cameron Ward be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+221.6%+$28.94
Will the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft get traded?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT+87.6%+$9.89
Will the Rizzler appear in a Super Bowl LIX Commercial?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+102.2%+$20.44
Will there be a streaker?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+38.9%+$5.6
Will Lil Wayne perform during Super Bowl LIX halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+29.4%+$15.9
Rams vs. Eaglesbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Packers vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2025, EST+40.8%+$8.17
Lions vs. Bearsbacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+31.6%+$9.6
All 15 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-34.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26.35
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$4.4
Will Trump meet with Putin in Saudi Arabia before June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.43
Will Trump sign mineral deal without Zelenskyy apology?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+52%+$17.1
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$303Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+63.7%+$192.88
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
Energy infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine in March? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will Ukraine agree to pay back U.S. aid before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Trump admin announces cutting Ukraine aid by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST-100%-$49.12
Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50.12
Will Zelenskyy apologize to Trump by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2025, EST+36%+$18.78
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Ukraine strike on Moscow by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT+38.3%+$19.25
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2024, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-48.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2025, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+46.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2025, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
F1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+184.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Notre Dame vs. Penn Statebacked Penn State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$10.4
Will Ohio State and Tennessee combine for 47 or more points?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2024, EST+89.9%+$14.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Centel back by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Luka Doncic play against the Pacers on Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Dvalishvili vs. Nurmagomedovbacked Nurmagomedov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+74.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Usyk beat Fury?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST+74.2%+$18.56
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+45.4%+$144.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will all LA wildfires be fully contained before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+44.8%+$16.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+41.2%+$12.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Diddy sex tape released before November? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+37%+$10.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST+33.3%+$4.81
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$86.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$31.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.