TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

The 'Bill' Epstein Parlay

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$54,372
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,372 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No65c5,859$3,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,059.258450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes29c5,847$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.146221%13 W · 49 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No43c2,921$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,675.914940.9%61 W · 88 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked No58c2,161$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.731250%6 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed No80c1,792$1,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.248150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8588…de5ebacked Yes47c1,704$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.372227.3%6 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0347…e0e5backed Yes68c1,659$1,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,134.514119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No64c1,530$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552.8920446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No47c1,353$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.1210749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x11a1…7afebacked Yes48c1,173$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.934522.2%10 W · 35 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-63.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes47c1,053$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.089549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d31…cb04backed Yes39c1,052$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4152050%10 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe85d…15eabacked Yes45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.39per pick64cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfef5…1a76backed Yes53c942.25$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.111225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958f…7a7dbacked Yes40c924.99$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…649cbacked Yes47c914.04$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.47922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e41…5932backed Yes58c747.42$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.951040%4 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-44.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc626…2beabacked Yes21c729.63$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No80c697.62$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.524052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes2c665.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.975616.1%9 W · 47 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50f7…b251backed Yes49c612.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick44cpaid-75.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c601.75$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.7569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2167825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1fe…1779backed No61c513$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.072339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bfd…007ebacked Yes37c506.39$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.06911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-83.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aae…c6c4backed No45c499.98$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.993253.1%17 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f5…fe12backed Yes44c491.99$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.121637.5%6 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes40c475$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.2515924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes36c472.68$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.6299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedf0…0245backed Yes36c440$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1593438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No60c439$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.031,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b12…aba8backed Yes46c429.55$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.592339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked No76c385.05$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.053030%9 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked No38c373.54$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.171136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No62c327.89$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.62839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed No52c316.31$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.0721634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff63…a2f8backed No57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1293073.3%22 W · 8 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea15…c292backed Yes41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12390%0 W · 9 L-4.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc412…592dbacked No45c299.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16610137.6%38 W · 63 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1add…d2afbacked Yes50c292.49$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9740%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9df4…02c9backed Yes50c291.41$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.992744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes42c290.24$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6875%6 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb97d…b68cbacked Yes41c269$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.031942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes32c245.6$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4737533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes22c238.69$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.7696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes42c231.1$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.7411918.5%22 W · 97 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes28c200$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3310632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ff…9f4abacked Yes56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002638.5%10 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No57c173$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6315238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfb…86d5backed Yes58c172.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002119%4 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No44c168$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.988355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No50c153.9$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.9811612.9%15 W · 101 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-59.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3667…75ffbacked Yes45c151.3$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0930%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x003d…7a58backed No54c150$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-29.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No55c145.89$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6828636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes40c145$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.330%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes40c144$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.64438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No54c135.96$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9537740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf85b…5663backed No55c132.9$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.595530.9%17 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes41c122.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3919…e80fbacked Yes50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes54c116.83$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.137562.7%47 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed Yes41c114$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.947723.4%18 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ba…ccb5backed Yes45c111.11$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked No57c107.83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.442161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+58.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked No73c105$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3517238.4%66 W · 106 L-14.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c5a…3f05backed Yes59c102.41$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-71.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes10c101$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12025%5 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca9…e644backed Yes52c100.67$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed No50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5013525.9%35 W · 100 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-37.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…ac57backed Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-75.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes42c99.99$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.998529.4%25 W · 60 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ab…da59backed Yes56c89.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-83.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78ca…2f89backed No69c89.28$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.682100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+164.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5dc4…618bbacked No50c88.15$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked Yes46c85$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.685944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…ab88backed Yes13c82.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1190%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed No47c78.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.212548%12 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc743…44d8backed Yes51c77.69$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.15per pick36cpaid-57%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No52c77.61$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0717021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed No41c72.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.8632626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8980…e844backed No58c70.5$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.81933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2564…1b02backed Yes57c66.9$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.151330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x26df…f747backed No70c66.86$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.062969%20 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No53c66.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5413556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes15c66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.151,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6033…88eebacked Yes46c64.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No58c62.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267475.7%56 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a48…22e8backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.213167.9%89 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+2.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb99…8c33backed No74c59.25$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2210244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb03…4bdfbacked No59c57.25$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.595966.1%39 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick66cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cac…6fa7backed Yes41c55$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.463644.4%16 W · 20 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8182…7cf5backed No49c53$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.832133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5f9…ed67backed Yes47c52.92$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2580%0 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed No71c50.45$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.454774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.4wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.55942.4%25 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed No61c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.51163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…7a79backed No54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+72.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.