TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0347…e0e5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
76
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST4119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 41 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump & Elon reduce the deficit in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Trump takes Panama Canal in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$184.63
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Trump cut corporate taxes in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$848Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$848.42
Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$199Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$198.61
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$299Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$299
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
U.S. forces in Gaza before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Jay-Z be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.63
Will Joe Biden be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will Ellen DeGeneres be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Barack Obama be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
The 'Bill' Epstein Parlaybacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,134.51
US-Iran nuclear deal before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$503Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$502.89
Will America be profitable any month in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$225
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$141.75
Trump Admin recommends removing fluoride from water by April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$325Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$324.99
Will Trump end Department of Education in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Trump declassifies 9/11 files in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$176Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$176.34
Trump takes Panama Canal in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Trump positive favorability on Day 100?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.62
Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 41 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1216.7%2 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-65.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$247.53
Will Ukraine agree to give up Russian territory in Kursk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$3,079Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,079.43
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$7,715Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$7,715.27
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$7,347Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$7,346.51
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13,492Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$13,492.14
U.S. announces resumption of direct flights to Russia before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.4
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15,824Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,824.23
US lifts Russia sanctions before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,027Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,026.56
Trump meets with Zelenskyy in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$2,528Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+170.3%+$4,304.33
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+44.9%+$11.92
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2025, EDT911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick35cpaid-84.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. withdraws from Syria before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$174
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.86
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will Pietro Parolin be the next pope?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,551Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,551.32
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$125.19
Georgescu banned from Romania election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$24.77
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT+36.8%+$88.46
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will AfD win the most seats in the next German election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$30
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$523Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2025, EST-100%-$523
Will 52 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+229.7%+$160.8
Will 51 Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will 54 or more Senators vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Mitch McConnell vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$170.92
Will John Fetterman vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard Jr. as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$200
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$4,243Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+104.3%+$4,423.56
All 7 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+74.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sea/Air ceasefire in Ukraine before May? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$1,174Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2025, EDT+86.6%+$1,017.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.