TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump create 'gold card' citizenship before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$978,424
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$984,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $978,424 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb53f…8707backed Yes52c125,655$65,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,340.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7571…1e8ebacked No48c125,632$60,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,328.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc191…ba36backed Yes57c125,247$71,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71,390.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfecb…4badbacked No43c125,247$53,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71,390.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c5…9772backed Yes68c100,125$68,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,08520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fa5…16e3backed No32c100,125$32,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,085475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+192.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9ab…e269backed Yes0c41,920$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No46c9,083$4,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,912.417850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x551e…b0e0backed No41c8,934$3,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,273.124744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+52.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes0c8,205$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.886530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x38cd…a557backed Yes56c5,047$2,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,801.535147.1%24 W · 27 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+28.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7de9…ca15backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee3d…501bbacked Yes15c3,508$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1292…e678backed Yes67c3,123$2,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-45.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No59c2,715$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.383658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6448…cab3backed Yes15c2,683$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes35c2,660$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.6117633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed No57c2,653$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.032839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes63c2,626$1,662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.736842.6%29 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e88…0670backed Yes80c2,507$1,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,995.4420%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes43c2,285$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.1169634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36b5…590cbacked No34c2,224$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,459.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+121.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes62c2,155$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.295756.1%32 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4447…a0e7backed Yes52c2,118$1,098 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,097.842317.4%4 W · 19 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-63.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes49c2,015$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.118746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc5f5…7f75backed Yes73c1,932$1,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.5620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes12c1,830$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.617825.6%20 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44bc…c53ebacked No30c1,754$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,232.212030%6 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+50.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes66c1,591$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,054.762352.2%12 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed Yes65c1,500$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9753844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+32.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No30c1,411$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.373125.8%8 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-53.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No79c1,318$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.412250%11 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3000…0d25backed No54c1,290$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.45944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes38c1,245$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.396319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…1fbfbacked No75c1,158$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.27666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No26c1,145$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$846.318745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No44c1,100$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.995756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec58…8ad9backed Yes19c1,075$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb777…3ef1backed Yes57c1,065$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$608.32728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1639…b984backed No28c1,051$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.132161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbe3…043bbacked Yes69c1,001$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed Yes12c964.86$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.486634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked No39c922.97$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.96616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked Yes51c919.96$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.084630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfce…a9aebacked No31c889.95$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+91.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebed…97bebacked No29c874.04$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.34425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No80c804.85$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.896256.5%35 W · 27 L+5.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+34.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4440…5f67backed Yes72c779.9$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.534431.8%14 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c21…69debacked Yes76c745$565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.17825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-66.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes54c716.62$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.369549.5%47 W · 48 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes69c711.74$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.444434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x073e…9750backed No63c704.99$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.12333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-47.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No18c700$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.23860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+34.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed No39c676.97$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.952864.3%18 W · 10 L+5.3wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+58.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed No44c634.76$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.462222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-58.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed Yes69c600$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41415238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd281…d2f2backed No33c597.78$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.78520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-40.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa586…9a83backed Yes47c558.95$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes20c529.87$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.9723149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3552015%3 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0992…2a08backed Yes69c486.83$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.66955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30ab…33c1backed Yes71c484.72$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.51650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a86…0a3fbacked Yes21c466.52$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf93…bdc8backed No60c455.73$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.233148.4%15 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-25.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes17c455.58$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.633221.9%7 W · 25 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes67c449.99$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30219348.2%93 W · 100 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb19…21e4backed No45c444.44$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.441060%6 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9706…13b9backed Yes6c443$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.58527.7%4 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-81.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c30…af8dbacked No44c440$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes73c414$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.225343.4%23 W · 30 L+6.3wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9b37…5b0ebacked No38c400.74$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b37…6962backed No80c376.2$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.21353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes77c354.57$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.4710834.3%37 W · 71 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes54c350$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.616643.4%72 W · 94 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c96…f26abacked No36c350$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.8955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12eb…b79fbacked Yes6c333.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed No21c321.17$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.721464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63c4…1176backed No22c310$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+95.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48d3…30babacked Yes54c306.18$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.347943%34 W · 45 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked No25c300$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2261741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dbf…ec66backed No30c282.26$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.372339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes70c273.7$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.6512545.6%57 W · 68 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes41c272.65$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.651,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes31c272.64$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.183859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd62…2b7ebacked No74c256.86$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked No27c250$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.52516%4 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe006…7ee1backed Yes40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes61c249.02$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.235673.2%41 W · 15 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed No44c246.01$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.934814.6%7 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-60.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c49…ee5dbacked No41c244.15$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.15633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes63c240$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.412736.2%46 W · 81 L-17.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-34.7%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xc8d5…cfb0backed No23c239.13$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid+8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b14…f687backed No66c234.36$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…05e9backed No27c233$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.092045%9 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5992…51e1backed No23c223.99$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+332.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No39c221.39$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.345944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8888…24d5backed No45c221.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.22475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No30c220.37$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.9917021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f6…4f56backed No67c217.42$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.421163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes56c210$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.31442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.