Middle East · resolved market
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b57eff8e0a14b212185554587d9bab1cc80a5c7a43300d4835d02a4005d22a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $905,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $962,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $905,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 331 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0ae…9b16backed Yes | 1c | 105,780$1,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,242.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Yes | 0c | 63,873$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.85 | 65 | 16.9%11 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c12…2b11backed Yes | 4c | 44,825$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed Yes | 5c | 33,708$1,786 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,786.28 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 5c | 25,728$1,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.14 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 18,450$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.74 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes | 13c | 13,240$1,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,779.06 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 1c | 12,300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.79 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 76c | 10,808$8,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.02 | 215 | 31.2%67 W · 148 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…a4c1backed Yes | 0c | 10,438$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 10,099$2,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.81 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc781…59d7backed Yes | 4c | 8,992$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.28 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x867d…3f3bbacked Yes | 22c | 8,740$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.44 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…d8c7backed Yes | 0c | 8,118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d53…af40backed Yes | 0c | 8,092$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b3…e480backed Yes | 0c | 6,934$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 7c | 6,100$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6130…144abacked No | 74c | 6,075$4,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,602.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c71…b8bdbacked Yes | 0c | 5,497$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 29c | 5,394$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.25 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0347…e0e5backed Yes | 37c | 4,919$1,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.89 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 5c | 4,632$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.38 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 0c | 4,359$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab5…1d6ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,018$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 8c | 3,936$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.17 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 7c | 3,665$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.01 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54af…bbfabacked No | 43c | 3,568$1,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,022.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd262…8553backed Yes | 56c | 3,542$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 6c | 3,010$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 17c | 3,006$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 2,750$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.7 | 58 | 1.7%1 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -93.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 20c | 2,726$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.97 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5088…8844backed Yes | 4c | 2,724$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 25c | 2,348$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.25 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes | 17c | 2,324$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed Yes | 1c | 2,109$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 19c | 2,037$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.05 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…a1dbbacked No | 74c | 2,026$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.84 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb566…978ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…10b6backed Yes | 2c | 1,836$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 9c | 1,767$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.46 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 18c | 1,733$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.76 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…c713backed Yes | 2c | 1,716$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…9031backed Yes | 2c | 1,657$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…2a52backed Yes | 7c | 1,639$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0ee…ec14backed No | 77c | 1,600$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 21c | 1,530$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,503$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97c…03f4backed Yes | 11c | 1,502$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.05 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,343$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 8c | 1,298$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.76 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 34c | 1,280$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.96 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4d…e4dfbacked Yes | 24c | 1,250$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…007fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,227$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.93 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 35c | 1,195$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.3 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf587…1419backed Yes | 5c | 1,190$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4022…d049backed No | 78c | 1,179$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…f36cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,103$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…fee7backed No | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…9c20backed Yes | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,100$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.3 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc98…a38cbacked No | 44c | 1,100$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…ae5ebacked Yes | 56c | 1,100$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe854…269fbacked No | 76c | 1,090$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 2c | 1,049$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 8c | 999$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.59 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3aa…2d76backed Yes | 43c | 970$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…7091backed No | 57c | 970$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4665…a0f7backed Yes | 43c | 970$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc078…7b91backed No | 57c | 970$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 63c | 872.15$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.97 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa104…8772backed Yes | 9c | 844.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 13c | 789.57$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.69 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 69c | 776.22$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.8 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -5.3wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked Yes | 2c | 772.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 27c | 731.76$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 12c | 720.34$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.44 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x568a…89b9backed Yes | 19c | 670.24$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb7be…cc5cbacked Yes | 8c | 640.45$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +197.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3b…3ad8backed Yes | 11c | 638$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf43a…cafcbacked No | 4c | 637.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.03 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 15cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 35c | 635.62$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 623.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 56 | 7.1%4 W · 52 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0d…da48backed No | 73c | 612.14$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.86 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 20c | 608.7$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.99 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed Yes | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 11c | 600$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 64c | 561.41$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.03 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 6c | 500$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +10.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…84e9backed Yes | 37c | 480$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 479.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…19f1backed Yes | 61c | 469.21$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf011…994fbacked Yes | 18c | 449.8$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f0…a149backed Yes | 25c | 447.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?this page
- Will Russia recognize Syrian government by March 31?Yes won
- Will Saudi Arabia recognize Syrian government by March 31?Yes won
- Will Türkiye recognize Syrian government by March 31?Yes won
- Will an EU nation recognize Syrian government by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.