TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe900…ee2e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Champions League, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Champions League at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT3036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$183,371Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$183,370.92
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$3,362Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,361.59
Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,149Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2025, EDT+34.4%+$1,081.83
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15,836Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$15,835.71
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,736Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,735.89
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$4,529Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+227.8%+$10,319.68
Israel military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$22,791Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT+188.7%+$43,016.5
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by next Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$158.34
Another Israel military action on Yemen by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$26,665Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2025, EDT+165.6%+$44,147.63
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$378.3
Israel retaliates against Houthis in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$9,625Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$9,624.6
Israel retaliates against Houthis by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$296Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$296
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$6,061Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2025, EDT+101.4%+$6,143.94
Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$594Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$594.04
Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$9,578Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$9,578.45
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,381Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2025, EST+34.4%+$820.06
Will Erdogan visit Syria by January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$500
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$136,856Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+64.8%+$88,725.38
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$6,354Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+90.7%+$5,764.44
Another Iran strike on Israel in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,648Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,648.45
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10,830Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT+73.6%+$7,972.16
No Israel strike Iran by Sunday Oct 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$340Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$340.37
Will Israel strike Iran on Sunday Oct 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$133Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$132.84
Will Israel strike Iran on Saturday Oct 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$366Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2024, EDT-100%-$365.58
Will Israel strike Iran on Friday Oct 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT-100%-$191.16
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid+5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$3,300Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+51.5%+$1,700
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$97,485Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+27.8%+$27,138.45
All 2 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 6, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+338.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid beat Paris Saint-Germain?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST+338.6%+$77.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+56.3%+$360
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the Australian Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2025, EST-100%-$87
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$481Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST-100%-$480.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Oct 27, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spurs win on 2024-10-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 27, 2024, EDT-100%-$78.71
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.