TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Another Iran strike on Israel in October?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,770,276
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,737,640

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,770,276 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 624 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes8c161,704$12,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,822.352015%3 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-63.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ed…7716backed Yes11c59,382$6,525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,525.3330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes28c51,219$14,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,460.7916743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d23…8f86backed Yes47c43,078$20,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,382.842015%3 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe12a…d428backed Yes9c38,273$3,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,4331258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+138.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3fa3…dc66backed Yes8c31,832$2,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,644.97166.3%1 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd909…fd75backed No79c24,774$19,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,111.22050%10 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6fc…8b32backed Yes5c21,093$1,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.69650%3 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+318.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7d22…f0cfbacked No77c20,102$15,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,629.68366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1513…5208backed Yes28c17,598$4,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,967.461926.3%5 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-57.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde62…f0b2backed Yes3c17,425$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfafc…bc43backed Yes12c16,700$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b57…f47fbacked Yes68c14,627$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,000580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+45.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No56c14,206$7,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,301.728749.4%43 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf459…a5c8backed Yes7c14,153$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.181643.8%7 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick23cpaid+65.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x843a…8070backed Yes6c14,149$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.586023.3%14 W · 46 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No59c13,715$8,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,689.997558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes9c13,500$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1652516%4 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f6a…3a2dbacked Yes11c13,384$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,520.846439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+94.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes9c13,256$1,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x18b0…2354backed Yes11c12,625$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.175736.8%21 W · 36 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+2.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ea…56c6backed Yes12c12,253$1,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.95560%3 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick32cpaid+93.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84c6…0c95backed Yes16c12,199$1,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,989.081921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-49.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcc8…ecdbbacked Yes10c12,119$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked No68c11,848$8,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,814.082263.6%14 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+19.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x09ce…6324backed Yes8c11,130$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes10c10,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes2c9,500$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2251421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick16cpaid+62.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes11c9,440$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.61726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No79c9,191$7,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.517051.4%36 W · 34 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814a…25adbacked No74c8,926$6,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,309.425743.9%25 W · 32 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e4…a478backed Yes16c8,522$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3652035%7 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No65c8,354$5,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,948.4911559.1%68 W · 47 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No75c8,316$6,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,089.127142.3%30 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-14.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa454…9767backed Yes11c8,230$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No70c8,018$5,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.2210150.5%51 W · 50 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d3…343dbacked Yes14c7,928$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.391346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0496…d6d7backed Yes7c7,843$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.28130%0 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbffe…6492backed No57c7,310$4,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,141.22157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked No79c7,274$5,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,518.87850%4 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-31%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a71…954bbacked Yes1c7,250$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.53312.1%4 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-59.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9116…6fdabacked No80c7,135$5,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,427.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x004d…665bbacked No75c6,460$4,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.281163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ab3…25a3backed Yes27c6,170$1,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,691.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2948…788abacked No30c5,920$1,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,118.963560%21 W · 14 L+8.0wins+0.23per pick37cpaid+69.5%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes28c5,835$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.453036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd980…f637backed Yes57c5,498$3,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,156.42812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick37cpaid-65%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No77c4,843$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.68220.7%17 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x210f…9d6abacked Yes52c4,799$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5002065%13 W · 7 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick42cpaid+120.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4733…1b3ebacked Yes4c4,741$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.12911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-65.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbbc…e74ebacked Yes47c4,717$2,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,218.331526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick40cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0692…10fbbacked Yes20c4,663$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.491643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes13c4,458$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.2643212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1f…c855backed Yes8c4,424$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.8810639.6%42 W · 64 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef3…3d1bbacked No78c4,344$3,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.962050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89fc…b5c2backed Yes12c4,278$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.692759.3%16 W · 11 L+8.3wins+0.31per pick28cpaid+105.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c4,151$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.3977636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d9…0e65backed Yes32c4,134$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.235121.6%11 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5f0…324dbacked Yes10c4,082$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x054b…8477backed No69c4,078$2,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,273.683324.2%8 W · 25 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-2.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes8c4,075$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.124214.3%6 W · 36 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes11c4,030$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.421216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-77.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fb1…36f3backed Yes20c3,982$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.881915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-64.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8a92backed Yes7c3,947$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-82.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No75c3,910$2,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.675749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7108…7492backed No62c3,803$2,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,458.011330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes5c3,800$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19040433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed Yes5c3,754$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick12cpaid-85%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4930…d78dbacked No74c3,749$2,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$986.76922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-69.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes24c3,746$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.769234.8%32 W · 60 L-7.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-42.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed No52c3,564$1,853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,710.883458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…f0e7backed Yes18c3,329$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick34cpaid+2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x801e…8d2ebacked No74c3,304$2,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes8c3,291$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.029815.3%15 W · 83 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes3c3,231$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4456336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x65fb…92cabacked Yes3c3,200$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032729.6%8 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4df…7f8ebacked Yes41c3,147$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.332326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-26.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No71c3,100$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8997542.7%32 W · 43 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x054b…2339backed Yes53c2,964$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.662445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc125…15fcbacked Yes28c2,856$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca11…6095backed Yes1c2,800$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-61.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6734…fd07backed Yes8c2,768$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2203713.5%5 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-63.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce0c…1a4ebacked Yes24c2,767$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$675.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b7f…84e8backed Yes6c2,751$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.592832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba55…d9f3backed Yes39c2,731$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,062.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1645…47a0backed Yes12c2,646$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b93…3c34backed Yes4c2,509$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.573116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick17cpaid+37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No75c2,500$1,886 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61413850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes25c2,410$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.2237740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9776…4e38backed Yes48c2,354$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.11020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No75c2,346$1,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.8540828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2803…0dd7backed No47c2,332$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.171428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-22.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9907…997bbacked Yes4c2,329$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b22…24a9backed Yes23c2,266$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeba7…daafbacked Yes4c2,233$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes10c2,218$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.563630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d0…2418backed No55c2,162$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$972.111464.3%9 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+51.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8d8f…abb9backed Yes40c2,049$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$813.8160%0 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36d8…6b20backed Yes8c2,046$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce08…28bdbacked No68c2,023$1,373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.292520%5 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-44.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.