TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,431,622
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,486,345

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,431,622 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd46b…5dabbacked No65c169,803$110,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,513.86825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x000d…758ebacked No74c157,804$116,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,798.521258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-21.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked No78c124,623$97,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,138.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d41…bf90backed Yes20c118,087$23,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,102.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d41…206abacked Yes29c89,345$25,626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,626.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes45c80,635$35,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,935.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-77.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed No69c57,377$39,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,553.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No64c41,342$26,584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,758.452634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6465…e38fbacked Yes29c31,111$8,908 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,908.355461.1%33 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5311…512ebacked No57c28,000$15,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,0401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x305c…dc57backed Yes48c27,487$13,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,202.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c6…c8c8backed No58c25,809$14,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,963.04425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-56.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes50c24,755$12,402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,402.482817.9%5 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes31c23,631$7,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,360.121936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa329…b8ecbacked Yes20c23,621$4,781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,78120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No59c23,591$13,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,740.7824258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No24c22,667$5,497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,170.01450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes34c22,634$7,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,737.647821.8%17 W · 61 L-0.3wins0.00per pick22cpaid-16.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes25c20,782$5,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,283.7615855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes10c19,014$1,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,912.1210625.5%27 W · 79 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes42c18,953$7,917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,916.511040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes40c18,404$7,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,417.743658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+41.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7624…03b7backed Yes43c17,000$7,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,31010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e2…6e12backed No17c14,272$2,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,806.53875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+95.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x088f…c9e7backed Yes76c13,398$10,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,246.153348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6107…6d97backed Yes30c13,350$4,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,053.360%0 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe423…8c34backed Yes26c12,722$3,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,307.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffdb…411dbacked Yes22c12,480$2,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,779.2870%0 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes39c12,077$4,754 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,754.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No29c11,394$3,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,122.572347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986a…4d66backed Yes41c11,327$4,671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,671.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07e7…2a0bbacked Yes43c11,000$4,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,73010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes28c10,269$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,825.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-72%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes53c10,213$5,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,426.467525.3%19 W · 56 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes32c9,353$2,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,959.66429.5%4 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick11cpaid+12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27b7…7806backed Yes38c8,720$3,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,304.67333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-49.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f72…83adbacked No67c8,445$5,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,757.464100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+89.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No63c8,324$5,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,040.7623435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2239…c9c0backed Yes29c8,236$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,425.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea6…9545backed Yes79c7,841$6,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,157.45250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes25c7,807$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.781526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-47.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e26…336cbacked No57c7,805$4,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,355.853666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes44c7,776$3,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,456.421136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2384…3e0bbacked No40c7,773$3,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,636.775639.3%22 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4428…12adbacked No67c7,606$5,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,494.37475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No75c7,489$5,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,847.049037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0626…17d9backed Yes21c7,235$1,486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x008f…3104backed Yes21c7,115$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-23.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f1…1b62backed Yes67c6,459$4,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,313.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No36c6,439$2,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,115.11163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes16c6,411$1,010 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,010.4460%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes45c6,326$2,832 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,832.38911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-55.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a61…eb03backed Yes40c6,310$2,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,515.51650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5983…64a8backed Yes27c5,981$1,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.61250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes23c5,913$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.8837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No18c5,851$1,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,786.871353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7327…b473backed No43c5,826$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3372100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+109.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed7c…da06backed No19c5,553$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,487.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+137.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c81…ddcbbacked No57c5,076$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No68c5,000$3,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6002544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-35.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b73…4766backed Yes70c4,923$3,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,452.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b78…e679backed Yes32c4,845$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,536.333565.7%23 W · 12 L+5.8wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x637b…68cbbacked Yes36c4,821$1,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,757.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5018…398bbacked Yes47c4,791$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.741030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes31c4,731$1,471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.611020%2 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No66c4,698$3,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.572965.5%19 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes50c4,692$2,356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,356.49837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes19c4,650$903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.248247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e38…ec7bbacked No54c4,615$2,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,123.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25ab…84f7backed Yes15c4,574$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-39.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked No37c4,369$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,757.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f17…e379backed Yes27c4,357$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03bd…d25ebacked Yes73c4,110$2,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,995.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes16c4,043$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.18333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x752e…81c4backed Yes46c3,830$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,742.81560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…cc73backed No66c3,782$2,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,283.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0770…184bbacked Yes41c3,617$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.78966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+121.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8cf2…47d8backed Yes43c3,559$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,531.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes37c3,543$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,313.728936%32 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x856e…8fc7backed Yes32c3,375$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes15c3,375$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.065922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc570…c2a0backed Yes43c3,250$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.49520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-66.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes32c3,210$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.323630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes71c3,210$2,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc71…eb87backed Yes35c3,207$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.51752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed Yes43c3,186$1,368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,367.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d58…a881backed Yes33c3,048$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes45c3,021$1,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,359.512025%5 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes24c3,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7202532%8 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-43%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9739…159fbacked Yes22c3,000$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$669.99200%0 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes21c2,912$614 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$613.553119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf819…ac66backed Yes52c2,838$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14fe…2a19backed Yes35c2,836$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes39c2,820$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.633342.4%14 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5955…932fbacked Yes39c2,793$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No68c2,790$1,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.344656.5%26 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked No60c2,779$1,667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5871…96e7backed Yes69c2,702$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf54…0315backed Yes37c2,672$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.