Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,431,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,486,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,431,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked No | 65c | 169,803$110,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59,513.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x000d…758ebacked No | 74c | 157,804$116,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,798.52 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe900…ee2ebacked No | 78c | 124,623$97,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,138.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…bf90backed Yes | 20c | 118,087$23,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,102.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d41…206abacked Yes | 29c | 89,345$25,626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,626.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes | 45c | 80,635$35,936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,935.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 69c | 57,377$39,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,553.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 64c | 41,342$26,584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,758.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…e38fbacked Yes | 29c | 31,111$8,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,908.35 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…512ebacked No | 57c | 28,000$15,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,040 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305c…dc57backed Yes | 48c | 27,487$13,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,202.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…c8c8backed No | 58c | 25,809$14,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,963.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 50c | 24,755$12,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,402.48 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 31c | 23,631$7,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,360.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa329…b8ecbacked Yes | 20c | 23,621$4,781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,781 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 59c | 23,591$13,851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,740.78 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 24c | 22,667$5,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,170.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9524…86cfbacked Yes | 34c | 22,634$7,738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,737.64 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed Yes | 25c | 20,782$5,284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,283.76 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 19,014$1,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.12 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…a43dbacked Yes | 42c | 18,953$7,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,916.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 40c | 18,404$7,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,417.74 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7624…03b7backed Yes | 43c | 17,000$7,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e2…6e12backed No | 17c | 14,272$2,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,806.53 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 76c | 13,398$10,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,246.15 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6107…6d97backed Yes | 30c | 13,350$4,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,053.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe423…8c34backed Yes | 26c | 12,722$3,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,307.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffdb…411dbacked Yes | 22c | 12,480$2,779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,779.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed Yes | 39c | 12,077$4,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,754.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…21bbbacked No | 29c | 11,394$3,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,122.57 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4d66backed Yes | 41c | 11,327$4,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,671.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e7…2a0bbacked Yes | 43c | 11,000$4,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,730 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 28c | 10,269$2,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,825.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -72%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 53c | 10,213$5,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,426.46 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 32c | 9,353$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,959.66 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…7806backed Yes | 38c | 8,720$3,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,304.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f72…83adbacked No | 67c | 8,445$5,688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,757.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 63c | 8,324$5,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,040.76 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2239…c9c0backed Yes | 29c | 8,236$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…9545backed Yes | 79c | 7,841$6,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,157.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes | 25c | 7,807$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.78 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e26…336cbacked No | 57c | 7,805$4,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,355.85 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 44c | 7,776$3,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,456.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…3e0bbacked No | 40c | 7,773$3,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,636.77 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4428…12adbacked No | 67c | 7,606$5,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,494.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 75c | 7,489$5,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,847.04 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0626…17d9backed Yes | 21c | 7,235$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008f…3104backed Yes | 21c | 7,115$1,464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,463.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…1b62backed Yes | 67c | 6,459$4,313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,313.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x312b…cafebacked No | 36c | 6,439$2,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,115.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 16c | 6,411$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010.44 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 45c | 6,326$2,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,832.38 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 40c | 6,310$2,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,515.51 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5983…64a8backed Yes | 27c | 5,981$1,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,597.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 23c | 5,913$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 18c | 5,851$1,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,786.87 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7327…b473backed No | 43c | 5,826$2,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,337 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…da06backed No | 19c | 5,553$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c81…ddcbbacked No | 57c | 5,076$2,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,199.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 13c | 5,000$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 5,000$3,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed Yes | 70c | 4,923$3,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,452.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b78…e679backed Yes | 32c | 4,845$1,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,536.33 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…68cbbacked Yes | 36c | 4,821$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…398bbacked Yes | 47c | 4,791$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 31c | 4,731$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 66c | 4,698$3,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.57 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0c…935dbacked Yes | 50c | 4,692$2,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,356.49 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 19c | 4,650$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.24 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e38…ec7bbacked No | 54c | 4,615$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,123.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 15c | 4,574$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.14 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked No | 37c | 4,369$1,611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,757.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f17…e379backed Yes | 27c | 4,357$1,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03bd…d25ebacked Yes | 73c | 4,110$2,995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,995.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 16c | 4,043$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 46c | 3,830$1,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,742.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…cc73backed No | 66c | 3,782$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,283.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…184bbacked Yes | 41c | 3,617$1,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,490.78 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +121.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…47d8backed Yes | 43c | 3,559$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 37c | 3,543$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.72 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…8fc7backed Yes | 32c | 3,375$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,072.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 15c | 3,375$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.06 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc570…c2a0backed Yes | 43c | 3,250$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,411.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 32c | 3,210$1,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.32 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 71c | 3,210$2,269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,269.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc71…eb87backed Yes | 35c | 3,207$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.5 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed Yes | 43c | 3,186$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…a881backed Yes | 33c | 3,048$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,021$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,359.51 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 24c | 3,000$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 22c | 3,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$669.99 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 21c | 2,912$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.55 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf819…ac66backed Yes | 52c | 2,838$1,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,482.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14fe…2a19backed Yes | 35c | 2,836$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 39c | 2,820$1,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.63 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5955…932fbacked Yes | 39c | 2,793$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 68c | 2,790$1,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.34 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked No | 60c | 2,779$1,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5871…96e7backed Yes | 69c | 2,702$1,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,865.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf54…0315backed Yes | 37c | 2,672$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.