TailMyPicks
Market

Middle East · resolved market

Another Israel strike on Yemen in July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$489,413
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$543,148

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $489,413 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 336 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes65c34,615$22,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,168.867751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x57e7…b491backed No41c28,921$11,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,809.782373.9%17 W · 6 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+18%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes66c25,129$16,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,616.5616743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x037e…0c63backed Yes55c23,617$13,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,576.613336.4%12 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa56…f232backed No34c21,001$7,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,084757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe281…e7bfbacked No0c18,334$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.49258%2 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-79.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes73c16,161$11,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,321.098056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d30…2690backed No1c15,607$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes69c14,038$9,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,338.0617740.7%72 W · 105 L+13.9wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+36%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe967…f62bbacked No27c12,474$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.51637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0301…aa15backed Yes63c9,713$6,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,630.72832.1%9 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd602…0105backed Yes77c9,443$7,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,203.42532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed No29c9,380$2,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,755.767042.9%30 W · 40 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes63c8,537$5,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,156.177940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d8a…60b1backed No0c8,083$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3a2…203abacked No31c6,971$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc023…ccf8backed No11c6,865$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.723619.4%7 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f00…2b5bbacked No48c6,311$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0001442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+26.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…adf8backed No48c6,231$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,991.114938.8%19 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc976…0ad5backed Yes66c6,051$4,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,041.973534.3%12 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No27c5,955$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.0726423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No13c5,370$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.884769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes63c5,250$3,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,930.9956336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xac80…ed65backed No17c5,134$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$898.281346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a8…fe2ebacked No33c5,035$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.92837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No26c4,546$1,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1657741.6%32 W · 45 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82d7…2b15backed Yes70c4,300$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes74c4,230$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.833036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf513…8297backed No38c3,900$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.9950%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No39c3,895$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.2512152.9%64 W · 57 L+12.9wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No37c3,845$1,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,408.866942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843b…2673backed Yes76c3,687$2,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$874.752123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed No27c3,461$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.121154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9401…e514backed No30c3,365$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa52f…0425backed No29c3,360$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.782240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes57c3,107$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.2212138.8%47 W · 74 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+24.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No1c3,002$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.029535.8%34 W · 61 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+16.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes78c2,634$2,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.2214520.7%30 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes67c2,622$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$855.2642818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No43c2,517$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.948450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No33c2,494$821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$820.8727233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8346…fb48backed No36c2,225$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.49250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked No9c2,178$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.682611.5%3 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No20c2,066$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.289617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe140…78d4backed No49c2,027$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…1e3ebacked Yes80c2,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4002100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c3…5152backed Yes58c2,000$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.992733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3885…35debacked No30c1,986$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.341040%4 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2bb…bbcfbacked No15c1,972$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No29c1,893$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.8516651.2%85 W · 81 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e5…b7e6backed No40c1,854$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.443040%12 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed Yes80c1,821$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.287741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No41c1,700$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.413847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8083…f2abbacked No47c1,694$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+62.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce5…d22bbacked No30c1,671$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No34c1,478$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8140828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa97b…a5c4backed No26c1,476$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.91862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa631…fdddbacked Yes67c1,462$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.31580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee07…0647backed Yes57c1,454$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.52035%7 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75b1…e2e8backed No52c1,354$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.281136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.18per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No34c1,316$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.019154.9%50 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc085…82fabacked Yes67c1,295$865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.016929%20 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9afe…b9e5backed No39c1,281$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa606…420fbacked No25c1,245$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.81040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes73c1,241$906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.2277636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No10c1,236$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5710555.2%58 W · 47 L+7.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4581…c6adbacked No12c1,225$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.18977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick59cpaid+23.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f22…fdd3backed No41c1,220$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d2c…17d2backed Yes70c1,183$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.441758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.16per pick43cpaid+39.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed No41c1,173$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4802445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0d…2a33backed Yes66c1,172$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.763745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd9b…020fbacked No24c1,161$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ef…a37abacked No28c1,110$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.613132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes60c1,080$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.813419.4%26 W · 108 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No14c1,000$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.013588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf747…f687backed No23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fea…7375backed No42c1,000$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.89540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6d…f2b4backed No12c965$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.352657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34e6…cd63backed No32c950$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3031338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4c4…a970backed No39c942.79$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.5350%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x664d…aa7dbacked No18c917.02$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.586229%18 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd08e…2f7cbacked Yes76c915.75$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.0517929.1%52 W · 127 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes78c843$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.298617.4%15 W · 71 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-63.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a83…b4dcbacked Yes61c822.15$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+1.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…5a09backed Yes61c815.04$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.041346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No2c809.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6713033.1%43 W · 87 L+9.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed No33c805$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1613360.9%81 W · 52 L+18.4wins+0.14per pick47cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x80ca…2bf7backed Yes68c799.99$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2562623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ca2…ca68backed No37c765.21$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-53.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes62c757.77$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.867841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes64c744.65$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.845843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc99…e0a3backed Yes51c725.66$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…1047backed Yes59c703.87$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.872263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc288…edb1backed No35c700$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2451421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick30cpaid-39%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea4b…7a6cbacked No10c696.41$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa613…c263backed No27c692.09$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1902268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x071c…e76abacked No44c683.13$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-46.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4712…dd08backed Yes75c669.04$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.04475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+23.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0add…0464backed No32c648.53$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.73944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x91c9…d319backed No22c630.69$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1405463%34 W · 20 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.