TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Tel Aviv bus bomber arrested by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$124,755
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$138,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $124,755 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes16c8,187$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,318.4316743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34ac…4b00backed Yes22c4,453$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes9c3,688$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.2651138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes12c3,672$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.74567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes16c3,638$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.043036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes23c2,989$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$698.462025%5 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes8c2,256$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.1250%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d42…9b05backed No78c2,088$1,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+68.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes15c1,766$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.51647.8%5 W · 59 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac6…2192backed No9c1,725$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,565.522524%6 W · 19 L-5.5wins-0.22per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes25c1,658$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.051526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes2c1,600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6726.9%5 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed Yes18c1,306$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-57.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes34c1,215$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.52236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked Yes24c1,133$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11013746%63 W · 74 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes26c927.44$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.173333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dba…9389backed No80c915.21$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed No76c784$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.742462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+22.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes9c771.04$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.373622.2%8 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed Yes60c762.24$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.262733.3%9 W · 18 L-7.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-45.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes11c582.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.292611.5%3 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe588…7397backed Yes27c527.3$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.53911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-70.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c8a…e62abacked Yes23c519.34$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204042.5%17 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes54c503.52$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.31553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c47…174bbacked Yes20c486.57$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-79.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4d5b…425fbacked Yes4c486$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5a…4902backed Yes4c466$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4495…a252backed Yes10c465.61$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x800a…7915backed Yes9c416$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No79c396.35$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2828…1e68backed Yes4c345.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd897…a582backed No71c327.34$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes7c312.63$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.442035%7 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+98.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x467b…66ecbacked Yes9c301$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8524…7d91backed No78c297.57$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.891100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cad…d5febacked Yes21c296.46$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes12c287.64$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8928750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8e0…0fedbacked No79c286.86$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No74c271.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes8c259.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-72.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes17c253$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.544645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb678…f74dbacked Yes8c240$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.21827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02c0…05b5backed Yes27c222.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.991225%3 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-62.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cd7…0643backed Yes27c219.25$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-57.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aa6…f50abacked Yes10c213$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95d4…01ccbacked Yes9c209$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.39450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No70c205.87$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5120549.8%102 W · 103 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes8c205$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.753619.4%7 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick20cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes11c199$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.89825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Yes11c184.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b4a…cb24backed Yes10c182$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5de…3474backed Yes11c181.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8307…b374backed Yes10c174$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes21c170$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No37c167.45$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.0434440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc1…9a12backed Yes10c165$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+19.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x50a3…7c05backed Yes30c157.97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.552060%12 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e1…4fd3backed No74c150$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No73c149.99$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6577636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906b…fc40backed Yes10c145$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05be…c288backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6c2…3e83backed Yes9c137$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes22c134.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6533741.2%139 W · 198 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4686…5637backed Yes12c130$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick41cpaid-53.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ed5…c003backed Yes50c126.21$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes14c125$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.953630.6%11 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed No74c125$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.511350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x661f…a311backed Yes9c118$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5d10…dca1backed No80c110$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55580%4 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No15c110$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1312932.6%42 W · 87 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf865…d8b0backed Yes12c101.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick27cpaid+54.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes29c98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.677040%28 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes11c97.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8313629.4%40 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xba5c…8b52backed Yes16c94.11$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153844.7%17 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4de…9b81backed No77c88.51$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1837…c705backed No77c75.04$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No60c65$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.9831649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4acf…9d04backed Yes16c65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0b1…bcefbacked No78c56.41$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a71…0f0fbacked Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.751668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+16.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64d7…512abacked No79c46.3$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.723557.1%20 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x040f…0caabacked No70c39.2$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed No80c35$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e15…8290backed No75c30.66$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f2…f6bbbacked Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No80c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47647.4%36 W · 40 L+10.9wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+10.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.83762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d70…87cbbacked No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.751758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.