TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,368,762
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,051,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,368,762 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x684b…0601backed Yes1c49,282$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.782045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ce6…26bdbacked Yes13c21,492$2,821 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,821.222626.9%7 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes13c19,693$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,560.061435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-24.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f13…33d0backed Yes6c17,506$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8489…208dbacked Yes3c15,851$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.9640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49d3…ea4ebacked Yes1c15,241$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003514.3%5 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e5d…ad4fbacked Yes15c14,239$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.812040%8 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes2c14,227$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.741244.8%6 W · 118 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-85.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed Yes13c12,094$1,576 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,575.6417225%43 W · 129 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c11,619$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.07580%0 W · 58 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ed…5535backed Yes1c10,387$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.691861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4359…2552backed Yes9c7,447$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+64.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes17c7,443$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.57227.8%20 W · 52 L-0.2wins0.00per pick28cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes14c7,000$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96037844.4%168 W · 210 L+33.3wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+64.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes13c6,190$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.7999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes2c6,086$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.635514.5%8 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-58.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes11c5,867$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.7816943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe637…7fbdbacked Yes4c5,653$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1991…3580backed Yes0c5,612$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe545…a68cbacked Yes14c5,140$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes4c5,000$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.31333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1293…35ffbacked Yes6c4,223$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes1c3,181$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.125349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30b4…8b72backed Yes1c3,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf43…6a1cbacked Yes19c2,564$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5003129%9 W · 22 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae43…5701backed Yes14c2,560$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes1c2,534$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9421935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c2,533$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10596319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes14c2,484$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.1515124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa715…15e2backed Yes2c2,438$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.04540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes1c2,325$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick34cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes15c2,266$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.754542.2%19 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd10…eb14backed Yes1c2,100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0384…df9ebacked Yes2c2,093$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9341…8489backed Yes14c2,080$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.92616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-69.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50bc…78c2backed Yes12c2,000$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.12913.8%4 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96a4…4d01backed Yes2c1,991$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.792516%4 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-74.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes16c1,779$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.22425%6 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed Yes2c1,729$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.771822.2%4 W · 14 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2e…40c1backed Yes15c1,629$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82c2…adc5backed Yes14c1,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ae6…5604backed Yes5c1,468$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-51.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7e4…1009backed Yes13c1,412$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…edfcbacked Yes14c1,167$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1949…72f2backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcefa…bef8backed Yes4c1,000$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf763…c36ebacked Yes10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$808219.5%16 W · 66 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50cf…62d1backed Yes12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes6c884.95$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8612531.2%39 W · 86 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb2…6c95backed Yes2c843.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-50.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad29…0c06backed Yes10c764.89$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed Yes2c750$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.53511.4%4 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda4a…96efbacked Yes3c684.47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7414…8e95backed Yes11c670.47$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.751435.7%5 W · 9 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick21cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51dd…00aabacked Yes15c669.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd16…9e21backed Yes2c589.97$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes17c577$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.67441.9%31 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x939c…8cd1backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d1b…39b9backed No76c537.82$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.08875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+76.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b0d…59bdbacked Yes12c500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes12c499$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.775834.5%20 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7e…3cd2backed Yes12c480.38$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes11c454.54$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes11c434.11$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.728741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1514…2624backed No75c427.55$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.443748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+104.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c60…45b8backed Yes3c400$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-74.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bc5…a867backed Yes14c400$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561050%5 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc466…99e3backed Yes10c391.53$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdeb…22dbbacked Yes16c381.25$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x801b…3b0bbacked Yes9c380$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes12c378.82$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.937014.3%10 W · 60 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes15c367.42$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8430319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xefb7…3e7ebacked Yes14c357.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca3…91f1backed Yes24c330.61$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdabd…4783backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe085…5474backed Yes17c311.11$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542850%14 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+23.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x904a…6232backed Yes9c266$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+103.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x420c…ccc0backed Yes8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d73…2a58backed Yes12c228.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x49d0…4ec5backed Yes15c210.82$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9bb…4774backed Yes10c209.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6386…9b33backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-48.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8576…f66bbacked Yes16c190$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.42263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe7c5…d9c7backed Yes16c187.5$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+14%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba03…9338backed Yes14c187.45$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x379d…54efbacked Yes15c175$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.25425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x479f…e623backed Yes29c172.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b9…6d43backed Yes9c169.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes9c166$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.396251.6%32 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf26…6198backed Yes14c165.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96c5…4907backed Yes9c160.06$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8b7…ee3cbacked Yes7c155.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.869129.7%27 W · 64 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9a9…0952backed Yes13c153.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ad1…6811backed Yes26c149.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+693.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes16c142.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.212412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-41.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x991e…4f83backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe073…568cbacked Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfebb…877bbacked Yes14c130.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.291723.5%4 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-47.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.