TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel withdraws from Lebanon before March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$671,326
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$749,335

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $671,326 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x84c6…c8c8backed Yes24c104,802$25,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,236.951450%7 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+140.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes29c53,640$15,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,744.5616743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe900…ee2ebacked Yes25c37,667$9,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,578.453036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No78c32,754$25,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,353.7835347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb38…7935backed No67c15,572$10,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,166.97560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick30cpaid+36.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked No40c12,705$5,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,631.137247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes18c11,816$2,138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,138.0140433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No64c11,669$7,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,143.027558.7%44 W · 31 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes20c10,395$2,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,030.48520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes15c7,961$1,208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,207.84567.1%4 W · 52 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-69.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No77c7,697$5,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.3234440.4%139 W · 205 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No78c7,314$5,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,590.7112245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked No64c7,131$4,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,570.0236750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes15c6,266$963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962.694835.4%17 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.12per pick23cpaid+44%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes29c4,586$1,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,345.913036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x719b…c995backed No52c4,543$2,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.891172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+18.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes8c4,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32036227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked Yes1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No60c3,701$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,477.154922.4%11 W · 38 L-9.6wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-67.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x5213…f050backed Yes23c3,352$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$776.35683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+41.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe680…8788backed Yes15c3,300$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.841942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Yes3c3,207$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.35032%16 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82b1…7579backed No66c3,198$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.377741.6%32 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes19c3,119$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.6511350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked Yes17c2,989$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…7fb5backed No69c2,958$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.682263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick59cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed No78c2,826$2,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$633.931649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed Yes26c2,684$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.093360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No75c2,415$1,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.166942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No45c2,228$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,227.083672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes25c2,017$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.642020%4 W · 16 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes23c1,933$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.181010%1 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick20cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe08f…2ad4backed Yes11c1,930$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.76825%2 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+279.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc89d…f5adbacked Yes21c1,794$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.461346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed Yes43c1,665$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.693141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac0d…0ed4backed No64c1,572$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed No65c1,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5257940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes24c1,485$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.374619.6%9 W · 37 L-4.1wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes38c1,405$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.566440.6%26 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-27.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No39c1,376$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8371050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b3…507bbacked No52c1,335$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$634.563336.4%12 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick28cpaid-4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes22c1,272$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.54645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes1c1,117$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.542611.5%3 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked No68c1,101$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.711947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No64c1,071$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.563762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes3c1,061$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.693836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes26c1,018$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.9740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xed60…9497backed No38c1,000$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6201100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbd…b8c7backed Yes62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16b…d883backed Yes59c1,000$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5902540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed No63c993.74$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.519639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked No63c906.97$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.392321.7%5 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-52.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed Yes14c901.62$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.0511329.2%33 W · 80 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-37.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a50…ff53backed No54c897$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x695a…331ebacked Yes15c890.43$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.72728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x207a…6fecbacked No65c883.29$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.361346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0e…8c33backed No74c858.76$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.28850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba03…f17abacked Yes14c858.48$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3143…81b1backed No70c809.99$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.832733.3%9 W · 18 L-7.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-45.2%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xad8e…709cbacked No41c770$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.982347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes29c753.19$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.8526138.7%101 W · 160 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f1…05e2backed No80c750.41$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.41666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c721.68$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2477636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed Yes21c715$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1502231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes14c712.67$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8726616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8637…9657backed No70c710$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.492864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes25c708.84$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.111931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9241…f41cbacked Yes49c607.48$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.641346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3cb…56b5backed No66c606.03$403 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.412462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.1wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+22.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xaba0…29fcbacked Yes24c605.32$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.541947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+17.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xeca5…77b5backed Yes32c604.63$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.541315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-55.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x767e…2b98backed Yes21c599.44$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.63475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+40.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x670b…e4afbacked Yes18c558.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fa8…d94fbacked Yes40c553.2$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.52231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-48%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No80c550$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8f…d077backed Yes46c544.11$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.77966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74f7…77c3backed Yes19c533.43$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.992850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed Yes30c503.71$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505829.3%17 W · 41 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb11…e93fbacked No75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1251643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+73.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae06…77e1backed Yes20c426.25$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852931%9 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc97c…03f4backed Yes24c382.5$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.61513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked Yes28c372.47$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.342015%3 W · 17 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x66ec…e3ebbacked Yes60c366.8$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-54.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e5…c1c2backed Yes14c362.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501520%3 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b9…525abacked No66c360.09$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.171533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes28c340$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1556336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes18c335.4$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4328427.8%79 W · 205 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa88d…221cbacked No61c328.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.743154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked Yes61c327.87$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003732.4%12 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf823…324abacked No50c315.07$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78cf…dbc0backed No67c310$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.91952.6%10 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…a71dbacked No65c307.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.753458.8%20 W · 14 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+36.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x97ff…cec5backed Yes42c307.62$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Yes33c306.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5eef…27f9backed Yes12c300.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.082070%14 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes27c296.07$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.5567841.6%282 W · 396 L-20.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No64c275.01$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.3286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed Yes37c270$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.95644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdb1…4253backed Yes48c253.79$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-22.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6929…7cedbacked Yes12c249$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.